Carmignac Sécurité: Letter from the Fund Managers - Q3 2025
In the third quarter of 2025, Carmignac Sécurité posted a performance of +0.67%, compared with +0.28% for its reference indicator, bringing its year-to-date performance to +2.24% compared with +1.84% for its reference indicator.
Market review and portfolio allocation
The third quarter of 2025 saw resilient economic growth, despite fatigue in the US labour market, and a gradual shift in expectations regarding monetary policy.
US trade policy remained a dominant theme in Q3, with tariff implementation delayed to August before new deals were struck with the EU and Japan at 15%. Additional increases targeted Canada, copper, and pharmaceuticals, with some rates reaching 100%. While the measures sustained mild inflationary pressures, they proved less disruptive than initially feared, allowing global growth and market sentiment to remain broadly resilient through the quarter.
Another key theme in the third quarter was the gradual weakening of the US labour market, which prompted the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) to begin its easing cycle in September. The turning point came with the July employment report, released in early August, which was much weaker than anticipated and included downward revisions of 258,000 jobs for May and June—the largest since the 2020 pandemic. The subsequent August report confirmed this softening trend, showing payroll growth of just 22,000 and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest since late 2021.
Against this backdrop, the Fed adopted a more dovish stance. At Jackson Hole, Chair Powell acknowledged that the labour market was “not particularly tight and faced increasing downside risks.” Consequently, the Fed implemented its first 25bps rate cut of 2025 to a range of 4.00–4.25%, and its projections indicated the prospect of further easing before year-end.
As a result, US rates declined during the quarter, with yields on 2-year and 10-year down 11 bp and 8 bp, respectively, reflecting a shift in market focus away from inflation risks and towards labour market fragility.
In contrast, the Euro area faced renewed fiscal and political headwinds, particularly in France, where tensions around Prime Minister Bayrou’s austerity plan and the subsequent vote of confidence fuelled market volatility. The French 30-year yield rose 29 basis points during the third quarter to reach 4.35%, and even closed at a post-2009 high of 4.50% on 2 September, leading to a general upward revaluation of European sovereign yields, with the German 30-year yield rising 18 basis points to 3.28%.
Against this backdrop, the European Central Bank (the “ECB”) maintained its policy rate at 2.0%, signalling a pause after its eight consecutive cuts since mid-2024. The central bank adopted a more balanced tone, acknowledging downside growth risks but limited scope for further easing in light of fiscal uncertainty and balanced inflation risks.
Credit markets proved remarkably resilient amid volatility in sovereign yields. Supported by solid corporate fundamentals and contained default risk, spreads tightened modestly, with the iTraxx Xover index narrowing by 42bps to 262bps, reflecting investor confidence in the credit segment’s carry potential.
Performance Review
During the quarter, Carmignac Sécurité’s performance was primarily driven by its carry, which continued to provide a steady source of return. This carry stemmed mainly from the Fund’s credit allocation, stable at around 76%, concentrated in its preferred sectors — financials, energy, and CLOs — which all benefited from resilient corporate fundamentals and tighter spreads.
Duration was actively managed throughout the period, starting from a cautious level of 1.7 years amid tariff-related uncertainty and robust macro data, and gradually increased to around 2.3 years. The adjustment focused on the short end of the European curve, aiming to protect the portfolio against a potential slowdown in growth at a time when the market had largely stopped pricing in further rate cuts. While the portfolio was affected by the rise in short-term yields, it was supported by short positions on French sovereign bonds — which benefited from widening spreads — and by the Fund’s inflation strategies, particularly in the United States.
What is our outlook for the coming months?
The portfolio remains concentrated at the front end of the European curve, where carry remains attractive and the market no longer anticipates additional ECB cuts. The Fund’s overall duration stands at 2.4 years, concentrated on maturities below five years and diversified across euro rate swaps, short-dated German bonds and highly rated corporate credit.
In contrast, the Fund maintains short positions on the long end of the curve, notably through French OATs and US Treasuries, reflecting concerns over France’s fiscal trajectory and the limited credibility of the Fed’s inflation stance. The Fund also holds long positions in US inflation as protection against sticky price dynamics in an environment of persistent fiscal expansion.
The credit allocation remains significant (around 77%), focused on short-dated, investment-grade corporate bonds offering robust carry and limited exposure to market beta. This exposure is complemented by around 5% in iTraxx Xover protection, hedging potential spread widening from current tight levels, and 14–15% in money market instruments to preserve liquidity and stability.
With a Yield-to-Maturity of approximately 3.5%, Carmignac Sécurité continues to offer a solid income cushion and a first line of defence against renewed volatility. We believe, the current barbell strategy, balancing credit carry with active duration management and liquidity reserves, leaves the Fund well positioned to navigate a period of gradual monetary normalisation and lingering fiscal and political uncertainty.
Carmignac Sécurité
Carmignac Sécurité AW EUR Acc
- Empfohlene Mindestanlagedauer
- 2 Jahre
- Risikoskala*
- 2/7
- SFDR-Klassifizierung**
- Artikel 8
*Die Definition der Risikoskala finden Sie im KID/BIB (Basisinformationsblatt). Das Risiko 1 ist nicht eine risikolose Investition. Dieser Indikator kann sich im Laufe der Zeit verändern. **Die Offenlegungsverordnung (Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation - SFDR) 2019/2088. Die SFDR-Klassifizierung der Fonds kann sich im Laufe der Zeit ändern.
Hauptrisiken des Fonds
Kosten
- Einstiegskosten
- 1.00% des Betrags, den Sie beim Einstieg in diese Anlage zahlen. Dies ist der Höchstbetrag, der Ihnen berechnet wird. Carmignac Gestion erhebt keine Eintrittsgebühr. Die Person, die Ihnen das Produkt verkauft, teilt Ihnen die tatsächliche Gebühr mit.
- Ausstiegskosten
- Wir berechnen keine Ausstiegsgebühr für dieses Produkt.
- Verwaltungsgebühren und sonstige Verwaltungs- oder Betriebskosten
- 1.11% des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung auf der Grundlage der tatsächlichen Kosten des letzten Jahres.
- Erfolgsgebühren
- Für dieses Produkt wird keine erfolgsabhängige Provision berechnet.
- Transaktionskosten
- 0.11% des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung der Kosten, die anfallen, wenn wir die Basiswerte für das Produkt kaufen oder verkaufen. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie viel wir kaufen und verkaufen.
Performance
| Carmignac Sécurité | +2.2 | +5.3 | +4.1 | −4.8 | +0.2 | +2.0 | +3.6 | −3.0 | +0.0 | +2.1 |
| Referenzindikator | +1.8 | +3.2 | +3.4 | −4.8 | −0.7 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 | +0.3 |
| Carmignac Sécurité | +4.6% | +1.7% | +1.2% |
| Referenzindikator | +2.6% | +0.5% | +0.2% |
Quelle: Carmignac Stand 30. Sep 2025.
Wertentwicklungen der Vergangenheit lassen keine Rückschlüsse auf zukünftige Wertverläufe zu. Wertentwicklung nach Gebühren (keine Berücksichtigung von Ausgabeaufschlägen die durch die Vertriebsstelle erhoben werden können) Der Fonds ist mit einem Kapitalverlustrisiko verbunden.
Bei den nicht währungsgesicherten Anteilen kann die Rendite aufgrund von Währungsschwankungen steigen oder fallen.
Referenzindikator: ICE BofA 1-3 Year All Euro Government index