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Carmignac Portfolio Investissement: Letter from the Fund Manager - Q3 2025
During the third quarter of 2025, Carmignac Portfolio Investissement delivered a robust return of +7.9%, outperforming its reference indicator, which posted a gain of +7.5%. Year-to-date, the Fund has achieved a positive performance of +11.0%, compared to +4.4% for its reference indicator.
Market environment
In the third quarter, equity markets surged, supported by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy easing, reduced trade tensions following agreements between the US and Europe/Japan, the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in the United States, and a broadly solid corporate earnings season. Investors largely chose to overlook signs of a moderate economic slowdown in the United States and Europe, persistent inflation above central bank targets, widening public deficits, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
US markets continued to be buoyed by the ongoing enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI). The momentum was sustained by significant investments from hyperscalers, robust corporate earnings, and a surge in deals and partnerships across the infrastructure and cloud computing sectors.
Emerging markets outperformed, driven by strong performance in Asia. Chinese indices rebounded sharply after a prolonged period of underperformance, supported by new stimulus measures from Beijing, and a renewed appetite for Chinese tech. Korean equities also benefited from growing investor interest in AI and computing infrastructure, amid announcements of structural reforms in the country—particularly in corporate governance.
In contrast, European markets underperformed over the period, weighed down by a weaker-than-expected macroeconomic environment, the appreciation of the euro, tariffs, and heightened political uncertainty, notably in France.
How did we fare in this context?
During the quarter, the Fund outperformed its reference indicator, primarily driven by strong stock selection in the technology sector and, to a lesser extent, in the industrial sector.
The Fund benefited from its diversified exposure to the technology space, encompassing the entire value chain across regions and market capitalisations. Alphabet was the main contributor to performance, driven by excellent second-quarter 2025 results. In addition, the company benefited from the continued expansion of its cloud operations, accelerated integration of AI across its businesses and a benign outcome in an antitrust case. Our positions in Taiwan—both in semiconductor foundries through TSMC and in printed circuit board components via Elite Material and Lotes—also made a significant contribution. Additional positive drivers included several US names such as Nvidia, Arista Networks, and Amphenol.
In the industrial sector, performance was supported by holdings in companies exposed to the electrification theme. Prysmian delivered solid gains, benefiting from accelerating electrification trends, the relocation of production to the United States, and rising demand for high-voltage connectors linking offshore wind farms to power grids. Comfort Systems, a leader in building services—including mechanical, electrical, plumbing, and automation systems, rose more than 50% over the quarter.
Conversely, the healthcare sector was the main area of disappointment. Beyond the sector’s overall weakness, stock selection had a negative impact, particularly through positions in Centene, Novo Nordisk, and Lantheus.
Outlook
The macroeconomic environment remains favourable for equity markets. Central banks are maintaining broadly accommodative monetary policies, US growth could accelerate in 2026, and the earnings outlook for next year remains encouraging. However, with US indices at historic highs, valuations appear elevated. That said, these levels, although stretched, do not in themselves constitute a factor for correction. We remain particularly attentive to two factors: the evolution of real interest rates and the dynamics of investment in AI. Both currently show no signs of immediate risk but warrant close monitoring.
Investment in AI continues to grow at a sustained pace: spending by the major players in the sector (‘hyperscalers’) is expected to grow by nearly 50% in 2025 and then by 20% in 20264, supported by innovation and the considerable productivity gains it generates. In addition, new players should be adding to compute capex, such as Oracle, Coreweave, or Xai.
However, some less profitable technology segments are now showing signs of excess. We therefore favour a balanced approach: geographical diversification, vigilance on valuations and a focus on profitable companies, which are often still immune to the excesses of enthusiasm surrounding AI.
During the quarter, we gradually took profits on our main performance contributors, such as TSMC, Nvidia and SK Hynix, in order to maintain a stable target weighting within the portfolio, and reduced holdings in companies such as Broadcom and Comfort Systems. At the same time, we increased our exposure to the software segment (Salesforce, ServiceNow, GitLab), which has lagged behind the rest of the sector.
We also increased our positions in sectors that had been left out of the recent market rally, including certain financial companies unfairly perceived as threatened by AI (Tradeweb, S&P Global, Intercontinental Exchange).
In the healthcare sector, after several months of underperformance, we took advantage of recent declines to strengthen positions in companies such as Alcon and Align Technology.
We believe that strengthening laggards with attractive valuations is the best strategy for tempering current excess optimism while remaining exposed to the current positive momentum.
Carmignac Portfolio Investissement F EUR Acc
- Recommended minimum investment horizon
- 5 years
- Risk indicator*
- 4/7
- SFDR - Fund Classification**
- Article 8
* **
Main risks of the fund
Fees
- Entry costs
- Exit costs
- Management fees and other administrative or operating costs
- 1.15%
- Performance fees
- 20.00%
- Transaction Cost
- 0.39%
Performance
| Carmignac Portfolio Investissement | +11.0 | +26.2 | +20.2 | −17.4 | +5.2 | +35.3 | +25.8 | −13.5 | +5.4 | +2.8 |
| Reference Indicator | +4.4 | +25.3 | +18.1 | −13.0 | +27.5 | +6.7 | +28.9 | −4.8 | +8.9 | +11.1 |
| Carmignac Portfolio Investissement | +20.0% | +11.2% | +9.4% |
| Reference Indicator | +15.9% | +13.5% | +11.3% |
Source: Carmignac at Sep 30, 2025.
Reference Indicator: MSCI AC World NR index
This document is issued by, or communicated on behalf of, Carmignac Middle East Ltd, a company incorporated under the laws of the Dubai International Financial Centre with company number CL 13413 registered at GD-PB-04-01-OF-01-0, Level 1, DIFC Fund Centre, Level POD, Gate District Precinct Building 04, Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai, United Arab Emirates and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority under reference number F013638.
This document is intended solely for Professional Clients and Market Counterparties, as defined under the applicable rules of the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). It must not be relied upon by, or distributed to, Retail Clients or any other person.
The fund(s) referred to in this document are foreign fund(s) domiciled and regulated in Luxembourg by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (“CSSF”). Carmignac Portfolio refers to the sub-funds of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive. Carmignac Private Evergreen refers to the Private Evergreen sub-fund of the SICAV Carmignac S.A. SICAV – PART II UCI, registered with the Luxembourg RCS under number B285278. Unless expressly stated otherwise, they are not domiciled in, authorised by, or subject to regulation or approval by the DFSA. The DFSA has not approved, reviewed or verified this document, the prospectus or any other fund documentation, and the authority does not accept responsibility for the information contained in them or for the merits of an investment in the fund(s).
This document is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or fund interest. Any investment decision should be made solely on the basis of the applicable legal offering documents, including the prospectus and, where applicable, the key information document, and after obtaining independent professional advice as appropriate. The information contained in this material may be partial information and may be modified without prior notice. They are expressed as of the date of writing and are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Carmignac to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Carmignac, its officers, employees or agents.
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