Carmignac Portfolio Tech Solutions: Letter from the Fund Manager - Q3 2026
Over the third quarter, the Fund gained +6.3%, compared with +2.6% for its reference indicator, bringing year-to-date performance to +49.1%, versus +47.9% for the reference indicator.
Market environment
Global equity and sovereign bond markets moved in opposite directions during the third quarter of 2026. While equities proved resilient and globally delivered positive returns, government bond markets came under significant pressure as persistent inflation, elevated public debt levels and stronger-than-expected economic activity pushed yields sharply higher. Equity markets, by contrast, continued to benefit from resilient corporate earnings, with profit expectations revised higher in both the US and emerging markets, particularly within the technology sector. In several markets, earnings growth actually outpaced share-price appreciation, allowing valuations to compress despite positive equity returns.
Artificial intelligence (AI) remained the dominant theme, although leadership changed significantly during the quarter. July saw a correction in semiconductors and Asian AI hardware following their exceptional performance in the first half of the year. As the quarter progressed, market leadership broadened towards hyperscalers and software companies.
More broadly, style leadership remained unstable, rotating repeatedly between high-growth technology stocks and more defensive or value-oriented segments. This created a less directional market environment than in the first half of the year.
Geopolitical tensions also returned to the forefront through energy markets. Renewed instability in the Middle East pushed Brent crude back above $100 per barrel, adding to inflation concerns. The broader macroeconomic backdrop nevertheless remained resilient. US growth continued to be supported by strong business investment, notably AI-related capital expenditure, while September business surveys pointed to improving activity in both the US and the euro area.
How did we fare in this context?
Over the third quarter, the Fund gained +6.3%, compared with +2.6% for its reference indicator, supported by strong stock selection across both software and AI-related infrastructure.
The largest contributor was Atlassian. After having been heavily penalised earlier in the year amid concerns that agentic AI could disrupt traditional software business models, the share price rebounded strongly following better-than-expected results. Revenue growth accelerated to 28%, cloud revenue grew by 31% and remaining performance obligations increased by 44%. These results reinforced our view that software companies deeply embedded in mission-critical workflows, with proprietary data and context, can benefit from AI rather than simply be disrupted by it. GitLab also contributed positively.
Microsoft was another important contributor. Strong quarterly results helped reassure investors that the company is beginning to translate its significant AI investments into tangible growth, with Azure continuing to benefit from strong demand for cloud and AI services.
On the hardware side, Nvidia and Asia Vital Components (data-centre cooling solutions) also contributed positively, reflecting continued strength across the AI infrastructure value chain, from accelerated computing to thermal management and cooling.
These positive contributions were only partly offset by weakness in Grand Process Technology (semiconductor wet-process equipment) and Nitto Boseki (advanced semiconductor packaging materials). Both companies had previously performed strongly, leaving market expectations particularly demanding. While quarterly developments fell somewhat short of these expectations, we continue to see both as important beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure build-out.
Outlook
We remain constructive on the long-term outlook for technology, and AI in particular, but the opportunity set is becoming increasingly selective. The debate is no longer whether AI will matter, but where the economics of this investment cycle will ultimately accrue. In our view, the most attractive opportunities still lie in the companies supplying the infrastructure required to build and deploy AI rather than in those financing the build-out.
Hyperscalers continue to commit unprecedented levels of capital to AI infrastructure. While this spending supports the broader technology ecosystem, it is also becoming increasingly capital intensive, putting pressure on free cash flow and raising questions around future returns on investment. Competitive dynamics make a sharp reduction in spending unlikely in the near term – underinvesting risks falling behind – but the balance between investment and monetisation is becoming increasingly important. We have therefore continued to considerably reduce our exposure to hyperscalers and favour the beneficiaries of their capex instead.
Hardware remains our strongest conviction. Demand visibility remains robust, while bottlenecks are broadening across the value chain, from advanced semiconductors and memory to packaging, connectivity, power and cooling. The rise of agentic AI, AI-enabled cybersecurity applications and increasingly compute-intensive workloads should continue to support strong demand for both processing power and memory. As inference requirements scale, the hardware intensity of AI infrastructure should continue to rise. Importantly, many of these companies are monetising the AI build-out today: orders translate into revenues, earnings and, for the businesses we favour, free cash flow.
At the same time, valuation discipline remains central to our portfolio construction. Nvidia and TSMC remain among our highest-conviction holdings given their technological leadership, competitive advantages and strong cash generation. However, after significant share-price appreciation and the expansion of their market capitalisations, we believe the prospective upside has become less asymmetric than it was previously. We have therefore taken some profits and reallocated capital towards areas where expectations and valuations offer greater upside.
Korean memory is a good example. Following recent weakness, we increased exposure to selected names where we believe market expectations have become too cautious relative to the earnings outlook. High-bandwidth memory remains a critical bottleneck, while disciplined industry supply should support pricing and cash-flow generation. More broadly, we continue to seek less obvious beneficiaries across the technology value chain where valuations still offer attractive upside.
1Carmignac 30/09/2026.
2MSCI AC World Information Technology 10/40 Capped NR index.
321/06/2024.
4Sector Equity Technology.
Carmignac Portfolio Tech Solutions
Carmignac Portfolio Tech Solutions F EUR ACC
- Recommended minimum investment horizon
- 5 years
- Risk indicator*
- 5/7
- SFDR - Fund Classification**
- Article 9
*Risk Scale from the KID (Key Information Document). Risk 1 does not mean a risk-free investment. This indicator may change over time. **Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) 2019/2088. The SFDR classification of the Funds may change over time.
Main risks of the fund
Fees
- Entry costs
- We do not charge an entry fee.
- Exit costs
- We do not charge an exit fee for this product.
- Management fees and other administrative or operating costs
- 1.15% of the value of your investment per year. This estimate is based on actual costs over the past year.
- Performance fees
- 20.00% when the share class overperforms the Reference indicator during the performance period. It will be payable also in case the share class has overperformed the reference indicator but had a negative performance. Underperformance is clawed back for 5 years. The actual amount will vary depending on how well your investment performs. The aggregated cost estimation above includes the average over the last 5 years, or since the product creation if it is less than 5 years.
- Transaction Cost
- 0.35% of the value of your investment per year. This is an estimate of the costs incurred when we buy and sell the investments underlying the product. The actual amount varies depending on the quantity we buy and sell.
Performance
| Carmignac Portfolio Tech Solutions | +49.1 | +29.4 | +6.5 |
| Reference Indicator | +47.9 | +14.8 | +7.5 |
| Carmignac Portfolio Tech Solutions | +60.6% | +0.0% | +37.2% |
| Reference Indicator | +54.0% | +0.0% | +30.3% |
Source: Carmignac at Sep 30, 2026.
Date of 1st NAV : 21/06/2024.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The Fund presents a risk of loss of capital.
The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.
Reference Indicator: MSCI AC World Information Technology 10/40 Capped NR index
This document is issued by, or communicated on behalf of, Carmignac Middle East Ltd, a company incorporated under the laws of the Dubai International Financial Centre with company number CL 13413 registered at GD-PB-04-01-OF-01-0, Level 1, DIFC Fund Centre, Level POD, Gate District Precinct Building 04, Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai, United Arab Emirates and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority under reference number F013638.
This document is intended solely for Professional Clients and Market Counterparties, as defined under the applicable rules of the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). It must not be relied upon by, or distributed to, Retail Clients or any other person.
The fund(s) referred to in this document are foreign fund(s) domiciled and regulated in Luxembourg by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (“CSSF”). Carmignac Portfolio refers to the sub-funds of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive. Carmignac Private Evergreen refers to the Private Evergreen sub-fund of the SICAV Carmignac S.A. SICAV – PART II UCI, registered with the Luxembourg RCS under number B285278. Unless expressly stated otherwise, they are not domiciled in, authorised by, or subject to regulation or approval by the DFSA. The DFSA has not approved, reviewed or verified this document, the prospectus or any other fund documentation, and the authority does not accept responsibility for the information contained in them or for the merits of an investment in the fund(s).
This document is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or fund interest. Any investment decision should be made solely on the basis of the applicable legal offering documents, including the prospectus and, where applicable, the key information document, and after obtaining independent professional advice as appropriate. The information contained in this material may be partial information and may be modified without prior notice. They are expressed as of the date of writing and are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Carmignac to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Carmignac, its officers, employees or agents.
Access to the Funds may be subject to restrictions regarding certain persons or countries. This material is not directed to any person in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) the material or availability of this material is prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access this material. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The Funds are not registered for retail distribution in Asia, in Japan, in North America, nor are they registered in South America. Carmignac Funds are registered in Singapore as restricted foreign scheme (for professional clients only). The Funds have not been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933. The Funds may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, for the benefit or on behalf of a «U.S. person», according to the definition of the US Regulation S and FATCA. The risks, fees and ongoing charges are described in the KID (Key Information Document). The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to subscription. Prospective investors should read the fund's prospectus/KID and consult their own advisers before making any investment decision. Investors may lose some or all their capital, as the capital in the funds is not guaranteed.
Investment in the fund(s) involves risk, including possible loss of capital. The value of investments and income may go down as well as up, and investors may not recover the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged. Any target, forecast, projection or forward-looking statement is based on assumptions and is not a guarantee of future performance or return.
Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice.
The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCITS or the manager.
Morningstar Rating™: © Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; may not be copied or distributed; and is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.
Funds classified as Article [8/9] products under the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (“SFDR”) are subject to an EU classification only, and does not represent a label, approval or endorsement by the Dubai Financial Services Authority or any UAE authority. Funds that pursue ESG related objectives alongside financial objectives do so without any guarantee that such ESG objectives will be achieved. ESG data and indicators may be based on third party sources, estimates and evolving methodologies and should not be viewed as a precise or comprehensive measure of sustainability performance.
The fund(s) may be subject to investment, market, liquidity, currency, credit, counterparty, concentration and other risks as described in the applicable offering documents. Prospective investors should conduct their own due diligence and carefully consider the risks, investment objectives, costs and suitability of an investment before making any decision.
The Management Company can cease promotion in your country anytime. Investors have access to a summary of their rights at section 5 entitled "summary of investor rights" at the following link: https://www.carmignac.com/en-ae/regulatory-information