Markets haven’t read the manual
10 facts that tend to run counter to an investor’s intuition
![[Management Team] [Author] Thozet Kevin](https://carmignac.imgix.net/uploads/NextImage/0001/18/%5BManagement-Team%5D-Thozet-Kevi.png?auto=format%2Ccompress&fit=fill&w=3840)
To better understand the long-term performance of financial markets, let’s first look at fundamental drivers. The performance of equities is primarily influenced by earnings growth, and that of bonds is mainly driven by its yield to maturity. Bearing that in mind, looking back at market performance over the past decades, one can draw some lessons that might appear counterintuitive.
The performance of the main asset classes is broadly shaped by the following factors:
Equities are mainly driven by earnings growth, and to a lesser extent dividend payouts. Over the long term, earnings tend to move in line with nominal GDP growth (i.e. real GDP growth plus inflation). Evolution of valuation multiples can also be a strong factor, but their appreciation is a delicate exercise and valuations do tend to revert to the mean over the long term.
The prices of bonds tend to be largely driven by the yield to maturity at purchase (provided fundamentals remain relatively stable). As a bond approaches its maturity date, its price tends to converge towards its par value, or the amount of money that the issuer has to repay. The yield of a given bond is mainly made up of three components: the money-market rate, as set by central banks to reward economic agents for merely delaying their spending; the term premium, which rewards investors for the uncertainty (notably inflation-related uncertainty over time) associated with the length of time their money will be held in the investment; and a credit-risk premium, which rewards investors for the risk that the issuer may not be able to fully service its debt.
When it comes to making investment decisions, our instinct may set us on the wrong track – especially over the short term. One may be tempted to wait for the perfect time, to perceive volatility as the main source of risk, or to think that cash is always a safer bet. But take a closer look at the long-term data, and a very different story emerges.
The main takeaway from these 10 facts is that long-term investing does not follow a straight line, and hence the best approach is to strive to be a patient investor – provided one is comfortable with some detours and road bumps along the way. Financial markets do not offer an easy ride, but they do reward those who stay to the end.
This document is issued by, or communicated on behalf of, Carmignac Middle East Ltd, a company incorporated under the laws of the Dubai International Financial Centre with company number CL 13413 registered at GD-PB-04-01-OF-01-0, Level 1, DIFC Fund Centre, Level POD, Gate District Precinct Building 04, Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai, United Arab Emirates and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority under reference number F013638.
This document is intended solely for Professional Clients and Market Counterparties, as defined under the applicable rules of the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). It must not be relied upon by, or distributed to, Retail Clients or any other person.
The fund(s) referred to in this document are foreign fund(s) domiciled and regulated in Luxembourg by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (“CSSF”). Carmignac Portfolio refers to the sub-funds of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive. Carmignac Private Evergreen refers to the Private Evergreen sub-fund of the SICAV Carmignac S.A. SICAV – PART II UCI, registered with the Luxembourg RCS under number B285278. Unless expressly stated otherwise, they are not domiciled in, authorised by, or subject to regulation or approval by the DFSA. The DFSA has not approved, reviewed or verified this document, the prospectus or any other fund documentation, and the authority does not accept responsibility for the information contained in them or for the merits of an investment in the fund(s).
This document is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or fund interest. Any investment decision should be made solely on the basis of the applicable legal offering documents, including the prospectus and, where applicable, the key information document, and after obtaining independent professional advice as appropriate. The information contained in this material may be partial information and may be modified without prior notice. They are expressed as of the date of writing and are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Carmignac to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Carmignac, its officers, employees or agents.
Access to the Funds may be subject to restrictions regarding certain persons or countries. This material is not directed to any person in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) the material or availability of this material is prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access this material. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The Funds are not registered for retail distribution in Asia, in Japan, in North America, nor are they registered in South America. Carmignac Funds are registered in Singapore as restricted foreign scheme (for professional clients only). The Funds have not been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933. The Funds may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, for the benefit or on behalf of a «U.S. person», according to the definition of the US Regulation S and FATCA. The risks, fees and ongoing charges are described in the KID (Key Information Document). The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to subscription. Prospective investors should read the fund's prospectus/KID and consult their own advisers before making any investment decision. Investors may lose some or all their capital, as the capital in the funds is not guaranteed.
Investment in the fund(s) involves risk, including possible loss of capital. The value of investments and income may go down as well as up, and investors may not recover the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged. Any target, forecast, projection or forward-looking statement is based on assumptions and is not a guarantee of future performance or return.
Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice.
The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCITS or the manager.
Morningstar Rating™: © Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; may not be copied or distributed; and is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.
Funds classified as Article [8/9] products under the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (“SFDR”) are subject to an EU classification only, and does not represent a label, approval or endorsement by the Dubai Financial Services Authority or any UAE authority. Funds that pursue ESG related objectives alongside financial objectives do so without any guarantee that such ESG objectives will be achieved. ESG data and indicators may be based on third party sources, estimates and evolving methodologies and should not be viewed as a precise or comprehensive measure of sustainability performance.
The fund(s) may be subject to investment, market, liquidity, currency, credit, counterparty, concentration and other risks as described in the applicable offering documents. Prospective investors should conduct their own due diligence and carefully consider the risks, investment objectives, costs and suitability of an investment before making any decision.
The Management Company can cease promotion in your country anytime. Investors have access to a summary of their rights at section 5 entitled "summary of investor rights" at the following link: https://www.carmignac.com/en-ae/regulatory-information