Our macroeconomic scenario

Three questions to Raphaël Gallardo

Published on
3 October 2025

Geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, trade frictions… Today’s macroeconomic environment raises three pressing questions:

  • Geopolitical risk: Are we heading toward renewed escalation or a lasting truce between Washington and Beijing?
  • United States: Is a recession looming, or are we witnessing a return of reflation?
  • Europe: Can the recovery withstand US tariffs and Chinese dumping?

Watch Raphaël Gallardo, Chief Economist at Carmignac, share his answers.

The fourth TACO will be on Ukraine with US disengagement.
[Management Team] [Author] Gallardo Raphaël

Raphaël Gallardo

Chief Economist

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Video created on 18/09/2025.

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UK: This video was prepared by Carmignac Gestion, Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg or Carmignac UK Ltd and is being distributed in the UK by Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg.

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