Carmignac Portfolio Inflation Solution: Letter from the Fund Managers - Q3 2026

Author(s)

Frédéric LEROUX,Pierre-Edouard BONENFANT

Published on

October 13, 2026

Read time

2 minute(s) read

+0.2%

Performance of I EUR Acc Share class during the third quarter vs. +0.2% for its reference indicator¹.

+23.8%

Performance of I EUR Acc Share class since launch² vs. +6.6% for its reference indicator.

5.4%

Volatility of our strategy since launch.

During the third quarter of 2026, Carmignac Portfolio Inflation Solution delivered a performance of +0.2% in line with its reference indicator. This brings the Fund’s year-to-date performance to +6.3%, compared with +2.5% for European inflation.

Market environment

The third quarter was shaped by the persistence of the AI wave, whose impact was more visible at the macroeconomic level than in equity markets, as well as by increasingly frequent discussions around inflation. Equity markets overall, including semiconductors and hyperscalers, moved relatively little, while assets positioned to benefit from inflation generally performed positively.

The flow of AI-related news remained intense, spanning new investments, debt financing and security concerns, while confidence in the technology’s improving efficiency continued to strengthen. Questions surrounding the profitability of the considerable investments still required, against a backdrop of fierce competition from Chinese solutions, probably explain the mixed quarter for equity markets. Conversely, very strong earnings growth across other sectors helped offset market concerns over the profitability of AI investments.

On the inflation front, the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Strait of Hormuz kept oil and gas prices elevated. Their contribution to inflation prompted the world’s major central banks to raise interest rates, despite the absence, so far, of second-round effects on underlying inflation. Bond yields nevertheless rose significantly, pushing real yields higher and, to a lesser extent, supporting commodities and inflation expectations.

How did we fare in this context?

Against this complex backdrop, our Fund delivered a performance of +0.2%, in line with a +0.2% increase in inflation over the quarter. In gross terms, interest-rate strategies and inflation swaps contributed +80 basis points to the Fund’s performance, while commodities added 52 basis points. Equities, meanwhile, detracted 160 basis points, mainly due to poorly timed changes in exposure. Strategies positively exposed to inflation-related assets therefore performed well, but equity positioning and exposure adjustments weighed on the Fund.

The AI wave continued to attract foreign capital towards the United States and its leading AI companies, contributing to a stronger US dollar and preventing the rotation away from the US towards the rest of the world that would typically be expected in an inflationary environment.

Outlook

In our view, the outlook remains highly supportive of higher inflation, which should ultimately weigh on equities through higher bond yields. Persistently high oil prices, declining immigration as increasingly sought by a growing number of countries, and the combination of substantial investment requirements in AI, defence and adaptation to the increasing frequency of extreme weather events should contribute to resilient growth against a backdrop of sustained inflation.

In this environment, the main risk for our Fund would be a significant economic slowdown caused by overly restrictive monetary policies. We do not consider this scenario likely, as the prospect of a sharp economic downturn is particularly concerning for policymakers given the high levels of debt in many major economies. Our view is that central banks’ response to inflation will remain limited.

As at the quarter end, Carmignac Portfolio Inflation Solution has 25% equity exposure, negative sensitivity to nominal interest rates and a sensitivity of 4 points to future inflation, alongside moderate exposure to commodities, primarily oil. US dollar exposure stands at around 10%. We believe this positioning can provide a meaningful degree of diversification within a broader asset allocation.

¹Eurostat Euro HICP excluding tobacco (interpolated using daily pricing).
²15/12/2023.

Carmignac Portfolio Inflation Solution A EUR Acc

ISIN: LU2715954504

Recommended minimum investment horizon: 5 years

Risk indicator*: 3/7

SFDR - Fund Classification**: Article 6

*Risk Scale from the KID (Key Information Document). Risk 1 does not mean a risk-free investment. This indicator may change over time. **Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) 2019/2088. The SFDR classification of the Funds may change over time.

Main risks of the fund

Discretionary Management: Anticipations of financial market changes made by the Management Company have a direct effect on the Fund's performance, which depends on the stocks selected.

Risk of Capital Loss: The portfolio does not guarantee or protect the capital invested. Capital loss occurs when a unit is sold at a lower price than that paid at the time of purchase.

Currency: Currency risk is linked to exposure to a currency other than the Fund’s valuation currency, either through direct investment or the use of forward financial instruments.

Interest Rate: Interest rate risk results in a decline in the net asset value in the event of changes in interest rates.

The Fund presents a risk of loss of capital. Please refer to the Fund’s prospectus to view the exhaustive list of risks.

Fees

ISIN: LU2715954504

Entry costs: 2,00 % of the amount you pay in when entering this investment. This is the most you will be charged. Carmignac Gestion doesn't charge any entry fee. The person selling you the product will inform you of the actual charge.

Exit costs: We do not charge an exit fee for this product.

Management fees and other administrative or operating costs: 1,87 % of the value of your investment per year. This estimate is based on actual costs over the past year.

Performance fees: 20,00 % when the share class overperforms the Reference indicator during the performance period. It will be payable also in case the share class has overperformed the reference indicator but had a negative performance. Underperformance is clawed back for 5 years. The actual amount will vary depending on how well your investment performs. The aggregated cost estimation above includes the average over the last 5 years, or since the product creation if it is less than 5 years.

Transaction Cost: 0,50 % of the value of your investment per year. This is an estimate of the costs incurred when we buy and sell the investments underlying the product. The actual amount varies depending on the quantity we buy and sell.

Performance

ISIN: LU2715954504


Carmignac Portfolio Inflation Solution	+5,7	+12,3	+2,4	−0,1
Reference Indicator	+2,5	+2,1	+1,9	+0,0


Carmignac Portfolio Inflation Solution	+4,9 %	+0,0 %	+7,2 %
Reference Indicator	+2,9 %	+0,0 %	+2,3 %

Source: Carmignac at Sep 30, 2026.
Date of 1st NAV : 15/12/2023.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The Fund presents a risk of loss of capital.
The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.

Reference Indicator: Eurostat Euro HICP ex Tobacco index

Share our page via Linkedin

Share our page via X / Twitter

Share our page via Facebook

Download the PDF document

Share our page via Email

Were you satisfied with this article?

Marketing communication. Please refer to the KID/KIID, prospectus of the fund before making any final investment decisions. This document is intended for professional clients.

This material may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without prior authorisation from the Management Company. This material does not constitute a subscription offer, nor does it constitute investment advice. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. This material has been provided to you for informational purposes only and may not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or interests referred to herein or for any other purposes. The information contained in this material may be partial information and may be modified without prior notice. They are expressed as of the date of writing and are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Carmignac to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Carmignac, its officers, employees or agents.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.

Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice. The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager.

Morningstar Rating™ : © Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; may not be copied or distributed; and is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Access to the Funds may be subject to restrictions regarding certain persons or countries. This material is not directed to any person in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) the material or availability of this material is prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access this material. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The Funds are not registered for retail distribution in Asia, in Japan, in North America, nor are they registered in South America. Carmignac Funds are registered in Singapore as restricted foreign scheme (for professional clients only). The Funds have not been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933. The Funds may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, for the benefit or on behalf of a «U.S. person», according to the definition of the US Regulation S and FATCA.
The risks, fees and ongoing charges are described in the KID (Key Information Document). The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to subscription. The subscriber must read the KID. Investors may lose some or all their capital, as the capital in the funds are not guaranteed. The Funds present a risk of loss of capital.

The Funds’ prospectus, KIDs, NAVs and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.com/en, or upon request to the Management Carmignac Portfolio refers to the sub-funds of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive. The French investment funds (fonds communs de placement or FCP) are common funds in contractual form conforming to the UCITS or AIFM Directive under French law.

In the United Kingdom: the Funds’ respective prospectuses, KIIDs and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.com/en-gb, or upon request to the Management Company, or for the French Funds, at the offices of the acilities Agent, Carmignac UK Ltd, 2 Carlton House Terrace, London, SW1Y 5AF. This document was prepared by Carmignac Gestion, Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg or Carmignac UK Ltd. FP Carmignac ICVC (the “Company”) is an Investment Company with variable capital incorporated in England and Wales under registered number 839620 and is authorised by the FCA with effect from 4 April 2019 and launched on 15 May 2019. FundRock Partners Limited is the Authorised Corporate Director (the “ACD”) of the Company and is authorised and regulated by the FCA. Registered Office: Hamilton Centre, Rodney Way, Chelmsford, Essex, CM1 3BY, UK; Registered in England and Wales with number 4162989. Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg SA has been appointed as the Investment Manager and distributor in respect of the Company. Carmignac UK Ltd (Registered in England and Wales with number 14162894) has been appointed as a sub-Investment Manager of the Company and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with FRN:984288.
In Switzerland: the prospectus, KIDs and annual report are available at www.carmignac.com/en-ch, or through our representative in Switzerland, CACEIS (Switzerland), S.A., Route de Signy 35, CH-1260 Nyon. The paying agent is CACEIS Bank, Montrouge, Nyon Branch / Switzerland, Route de Signy 35, 1260 Nyon.
In Belgium: This document is intended for professional clients. This content has not been validated by FSMA. The decision to invest in the promoted fund should take into account all its characteristics or objectives as described in its prospectus. This communication is published by Carmignac Gestion S.A., a portfolio management company approved by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in France, and its Luxembourg subsidiary Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg, S.A., an investment fund management company approved by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). “Carmignac” is a registered trademark. “Investing in your Interest” is a slogan associated with the Carmignac trademark. This document does not constitute advice on any investment or arbitrage of transferable securities or any other asset management or investment product or service. The information and opinions contained in this document do not take into account investors’ specific individual circumstances and must never be interpreted as legal, tax or investment advice. The information contained in this document may be partial and could be changed without notice. This document may not be reproduced in whole or in part without prior authorisation. The risks and fees are described in the KID (Key Information Document). The prospectus, KID, the net asset-values and the latest (semi-) annual management report may be obtained, free of charge, in French or in Dutch, from the management company (tel. +352 46 70 60 1) or by consulting its website or www.fundinfo.com. These materials may also be obtained from Caceis Belgium S.A., the financial service provider in Belgium, at the following address: avenue du port, 86c b320, B-1000 Brussels. The Fund (fonds commun de placement or FCP) is a common fund in contractual form conforming to the UCITS Directive under French law. Access to the Fund may be subject to restrictions regarding certain persons or countries. The Funds are not registered for retail distribution in Asia, in Japan, in North America, nor are they registered in South America. Carmignac Funds are registered in Singapore as restricted foreign scheme (for professional clients only). The Funds have not been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933. The Funds may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, for the benefit or on behalf of a «U.S. person», according to the definition of the US Regulation S and FATCA. In case of subscription to a fund subject to Article 19bis of the Belgian Income Tax Code (CIR92), the investor will have to pay, upon redemption of his or her shares, a withholding tax of 30% on the income (in the form of interest, or capital gains or losses) derived from the return on assets invested in debt claims. Distributions are subject to withholding tax of 30% without income distinction. In case of subscription in a French investment fund (fonds commun de placement or FCP), you must declare on tax form, each year, the share of the dividends (and interest, if applicable) received by the Fund. Any complaint may be referred to complaints@carmignac.com or CARMIGNAC GESTION - Compliance and Internal Controls - 24 place Vendôme Paris France or on the website www.ombudsfin.be.

The Management Company can cease promotion in your country anytime. Investors have access to a summary of their rights at section 5 entitled "summary of investor rights" on the following links: UK ; Switzerland ; France ; Luxembourg ; Sweden. Belgium (French) ; Belgium (Dutch)

For Carmignac Portfolio Long-Short European Equities: Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg SA in its capacity as the Management Company for Carmignac Portfolio, has delegated the investment management of this Sub-Fund to White Creek Capital LLP (Registered in England and Wales with number OCC447169) from 2nd May 2024. White Creek Capital LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with FRN : 998349.

Carmignac Private Evergreen refers to the Private Evergreen sub-fund of the SICAV Carmignac S.A. SICAV – PART II UCI, registered with the Luxembourg RCS under number B285278.