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New world, new rules: Agility put to the test by Trump 2.0

Published on
June 3, 2025
Read time
4 minute(s) read

Carmignac Patrimoine: When agility rhymes with performance

The global economic landscape is undergoing accelerated shifts as policy changes under the Trump 2.0 administration and in Europe, disrupt financial markets, and create heightened volatility. Even the correlation between equities and bonds – a relationship that historically provided portfolio stability, has proved unpredictable and volatile. During the Liberation Day shock, when Trump announced record tariffs, bonds initially acted as a buffer against the decline in equities before both asset classes began moving in tandem, rising and falling together.

Against this backdrop, Carmignac Patrimoine—our flagship diversified strategy—has demonstrated its adaptability in the face of rapidly evolving market conditions.
Since the beginning of the year, the Fund has delivered a robust performance of +5.5%, outperforming its reference indicator, which is in negative territory at -3.5%1. This performance reflects not only our macroeconomic convictions—particularly regarding the market’s over-optimism toward the United States—but also the precision and agility with which we have executed our investment strategy. All key performance drivers have contributed to the performance, notably, our inflation-linked fixed income strategies, gold allocations, equity hedging, targeted selection of technology stocks, and our positive stance on the euro.

140% MSCI AC World NR index + 40% ICE BofA Global Government index + 20% €STR Capitalized index. Reset quarterly. Source: Carmignac, 26/05/2025. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance is net of fees (excluding applicable sales charges, which are retained by the distributor). Share class A EUR Acc. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

Adapting to new realities of the Trump 2.0 era: An agile management of the performance drivers

US MARKETS: THE END OF A CYCLE?

Tariffs and associated uncertainties are expected to temporarily weaken economic growth, before a potential fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration provides a boost. This growth slowdown should coincide with higher inflationary pressures and mounting debt burdens. Against this backdrop, we have adopted a selective approach to US assets in Carmignac Patrimoine, based on what is or is not currently priced in by the markets compared to our scenario.

The first consequence of this scenario is a further weakening of the dollar, accentuated by investors’ willingness to further diversify their investments. One of our main convictions, therefore, is to favour the euro over the greenback.

On the equities front, from a top-down tactical perspective, it currently appears prudent to further diversify the allocations beyond the United States. With US 30-year yields above 5%, the upside potential for equity valuations seems more stretched. With this in mind, we have increased our exposure to Europe and emerging markets, both of which present, we believe, more attractive valuations and are supported by their own positive fundamentals. This diversification has been implemented through targeted investments, including the use of derivatives and positions in leading European companies such as Siemens, while also maintaining a significant allocation to emerging markets.

However, when it comes to equity selection, geographic allocation can be misleading. A company’s headquarters location does not necessarily reflect where it generates the majority of its revenues or profits. The United States remain the most fertile ground for identifying companies with sustained earnings growth, underpinned by a unique culture of innovation and substantial investment that supports long-term expansion. For instance, the four major hyperscalers—Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta—are projected to invest approximately $330 billion by 2025. Additionally, the ambitious Stargate data center project, backed by the Trump administration, is estimated to require an investment of $500 billion2.

In terms of sovereign debt, we remain cautious regarding both the United States and Europe. On the other side of the Atlantic, our primary concern is that markets may be underestimating the risk of persistent inflation, while in Europe, it is the potential for stronger-than-expected growth that warrants attention. In both regions, elevated debt levels necessitate a prudent approach, leading us to favour inflation-indexed strategies. Conversely, sovereign debt in Latin America presents a compelling opportunity in the current environment.

Our convictions by geographical area

Source: Carmignac, May 2025.

OLD OR NEW ECONOMY: THE INVESTOR U-TURN?

Just as in 2022, the year 2025 underscores the cyclical nature of sector leadership. In Carmignac Patrimoine, we embrace a complementary approach to sector allocation, balancing both equities and credit to capture opportunities across the economic spectrum.

In equities, our focus remains on companies that deliver profitable growth at reasonable valuations. While demand for artificial intelligence remains strong, rising interest rates mean that valuation factor needs to be actively managed. Diversification remains essential, especially as growth opportunities are not limited to the technology sector. Accordingly, we have increased our exposure to industrials—particularly in electrification, automation, and aerospace—as well as to the financial sector. Within financials, emerging market banks stand out as an attractive alternative to their developed market counterparts, offering structural growth potential and more appealing valuations, especially as developed banks contend with high valuations, increased regulation, and a potential US slowdown.

The sector allocation of our credit strategy is complementary to our equity allocation. The high weighting of energy companies meets the strict criterion of their ability to withstand the volatility of commodity prices. Our exposure to financial institutions stands out for its healthy liquidity and capitalisation. These two sectors are also benefiting from the inflationary momentum we expect.

THE GOLDEN AGE OF ACTIVE DIVERSIFICATION?

The rise in long-term interest rates in the United States is jeopardising the efficient correlation between equities and bonds, which used to be effective in mitigating falls in the equity markets.
Consequently, a flexible asset allocation, which can drastically reduce modified duration when it is no longer considered beneficial, can make a major contribution to the portfolio, as is currently the case. Our primary concern remains the risk of a renewed surge in inflation, which leads us to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates. While equities remain our preferred asset class in the current environment, we take advantage of each period of falling volatility to buy protection (via options). We also continue to consider gold and the yen as safe havens, particularly valuable in the context of a weakening US dollar.

In today’s market environment, a diversified and agile investment approach is more crucial than ever. While we are not forecasting a definitive shift in long-term market leadership, we do see compelling catch-up potential in emerging markets and Europe, where investor sentiment remains notably subdued. Many assets in these regions are trading at a considerable discount compared to their US peers, presenting attractive opportunities for portfolio diversification. However, diversification should not lead to a dilution of convictions or a lack of directional strategy. Carmignac Patrimoine's portfolio is full of strong convictions. Thanks to a subtle balance between diversification and conviction, the fund, under the management of Guillaume Rigeade, Eliezer Ben Zimra, Jacques Hirsch and Kristofer Barrett, has demonstrated consistent performance.

PERFORMANCE OF CARMIGNAC PATRIMOINE

Carmignac Patrimoine's year-to-date performance ranks the fund in the top decile of its Morningstar category and top quartile for the 1- and 3-year horizons3.

Carmignac Patrimoine - Performance of the current management team (since 30/09/2023)

*Reference indicator: 40% MSCI AC World NR (USD) (net dividends reinvested), 40% ICE BofA Global Government Index (USD) (coupons reinvested), 20% capitalized ESTER. Source: Carmignac; cumulative performance since 30/09/2023 to 30/05/2025. For the share A eur acc. Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance. Performance is net of fees (excluding any entry fees applied by the distributor).
1Performance of A EUR share class as of 23/05/2025. 2Sources: Carmignac, Bloomberg, May 2025. 3Source: Morningstar, 30/04/2025. Morningstar EUR Moderate Allocation - Global. 2025 Morningstar. Inc - All rights reserved. For A eur acc units. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance is net of fees (excluding any entry fees applied by the distributor). Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

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Carmignac Patrimoine A EUR Acc

ISIN: FR0010135103
Recommended minimum investment horizon
3 years
Risk indicator*
3/7
SFDR - Fund Classification**
Article 8

*Risk Scale from the KID (Key Information Document). Risk 1 does not mean a risk-free investment. This indicator may change over time. **Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) 2019/2088. The SFDR classification of the Funds may change over time.

Main risks of the fund

Equity: The Fund may be affected by stock price variations, the scale of which is dependent on external factors, stock trading volumes or market capitalization.
Interest Rate: Interest rate risk results in a decline in the net asset value in the event of changes in interest rates.
Credit: Credit risk is the risk that the issuer may default.
Currency: Currency risk is linked to exposure to a currency other than the Fund’s valuation currency, either through direct investment or the use of forward financial instruments.
The Fund presents a risk of loss of capital. Please refer to the Fund’s prospectus to view the exhaustive list of risks.

Fees

ISIN: FR0010135103
Entry costs
4,00% of the amount you pay in when entering this investment. This is the most you will be charged. Carmignac Gestion doesn't charge any entry fee. The person selling you the product will inform you of the actual charge.
Exit costs
We do not charge an exit fee for this product.
Management fees and other administrative or operating costs
1,80% of the value of your investment per year. This estimate is based on actual costs over the past year.
Performance fees
20,00% max. of the outperformance once performance since the start of the year exceeds that of the reference indicator and if no past underperformance still needs to be offset. The actual amount will vary depending on how well your investment performs. The aggregated cost estimation above includes the average over the last 5 years, or since the product creation if it is less than 5 years.
Transaction Cost
0,32% of the value of your investment per year. This is an estimate of the costs incurred when we buy and sell the investments underlying the product. The actual amount varies depending on the quantity we buy and sell.

Performance

ISIN: FR0010135103
Carmignac Patrimoine+2,6+7,1+2,2−9,4−0,9+12,4+10,5−11,3+0,1+3,9
Reference Indicator−4,7+11,4+7,7−10,3+13,3+5,2+18,2−0,1+1,5+8,1
Carmignac Patrimoine+3,5%+3,2%+0,6%
Reference Indicator+2,4%+4,5%+4,5%

Source: Carmignac at Apr 30, 2025.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The Fund presents a risk of loss of capital.
The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.

Reference Indicator: 40% MSCI AC World NR index + 40% ICE BofA Global Government Index + 20% €STR Capitalized Index. Rebalancing Frequency: Quarterly

Share

Marketing communication. Please refer to the KID/KIID, prospectus of the fund before making any final investment decisions. This document is intended for professional clients.

This material may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without prior authorisation from the Management Company. This material does not constitute a subscription offer, nor does it constitute investment advice. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. This material has been provided to you for informational purposes only and may not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or interests referred to herein or for any other purposes. The information contained in this material may be partial information and may be modified without prior notice. They are expressed as of the date of writing and are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Carmignac to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Carmignac, its officers, employees or agents.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.

Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice. The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager.

Morningstar Rating™ : © Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; may not be copied or distributed; and is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Access to the Funds may be subject to restrictions regarding certain persons or countries. This material is not directed to any person in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) the material or availability of this material is prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access this material. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The Funds are not registered for retail distribution in Asia, in Japan, in North America, nor are they registered in South America. Carmignac Funds are registered in Singapore as restricted foreign scheme (for professional clients only). The Funds have not been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933. The Funds may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, for the benefit or on behalf of a «U.S. person», according to the definition of the US Regulation S and FATCA.
The risks, fees and ongoing charges are described in the KID (Key Information Document). The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to subscription. The subscriber must read the KID. Investors may lose some or all their capital, as the capital in the funds are not guaranteed. The Funds present a risk of loss of capital.

The Funds’ prospectus, KIDs, NAVs and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.com/en, or upon request to the Management Carmignac Portfolio refers to the sub-funds of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive. The French investment funds (fonds communs de placement or FCP) are common funds in contractual form conforming to the UCITS or AIFM Directive under French law.

  • In the United Kingdom: the Funds’ respective prospectuses, KIIDs and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.com/en-gb, or upon request to the Management Company, or for the French Funds, at the offices of the acilities Agent, Carmignac UK Ltd, 2 Carlton House Terrace, London, SW1Y 5AF. This document was prepared by Carmignac Gestion, Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg or Carmignac UK Ltd. FP Carmignac ICVC (the “Company”) is an Investment Company with variable capital incorporated in England and Wales under registered number 839620 and is authorised by the FCA with effect from 4 April 2019 and launched on 15 May 2019. FundRock Partners Limited is the Authorised Corporate Director (the “ACD”) of the Company and is authorised and regulated by the FCA. Registered Office: Hamilton Centre, Rodney Way, Chelmsford, Essex, CM1 3BY, UK; Registered in England and Wales with number 4162989. Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg SA has been appointed as the Investment Manager and distributor in respect of the Company. Carmignac UK Ltd (Registered in England and Wales with number 14162894) has been appointed as a sub-Investment Manager of the Company and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with FRN:984288.

  • In Switzerland: the prospectus, KIDs and annual report are available at www.carmignac.com/en-ch, or through our representative in Switzerland, CACEIS (Switzerland), S.A., Route de Signy 35, CH-1260 Nyon. The paying agent is CACEIS Bank, Montrouge, Nyon Branch / Switzerland, Route de Signy 35, 1260 Nyon.

  • In Belgium: This document is intended for professional clients. This content has not been validated by FSMA. The decision to invest in the promoted fund should take into account all its characteristics or objectives as described in its prospectus. This communication is published by Carmignac Gestion S.A., a portfolio management company approved by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in France, and its Luxembourg subsidiary Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg, S.A., an investment fund management company approved by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). “Carmignac” is a registered trademark. “Investing in your Interest” is a slogan associated with the Carmignac trademark. This document does not constitute advice on any investment or arbitrage of transferable securities or any other asset management or investment product or service. The information and opinions contained in this document do not take into account investors’ specific individual circumstances and must never be interpreted as legal, tax or investment advice. The information contained in this document may be partial and could be changed without notice. This document may not be reproduced in whole or in part without prior authorisation. The risks and fees are described in the KID (Key Information Document). The prospectus, KID, the net asset-values and the latest (semi-) annual management report may be obtained, free of charge, in French or in Dutch, from the management company (tel. +352 46 70 60 1) or by consulting its website or www.fundinfo.com. These materials may also be obtained from Caceis Belgium S.A., the financial service provider in Belgium, at the following address: avenue du port, 86c b320, B-1000 Brussels. The Fund (fonds commun de placement or FCP) is a common fund in contractual form conforming to the UCITS Directive under French law. Access to the Fund may be subject to restrictions regarding certain persons or countries. The Funds are not registered for retail distribution in Asia, in Japan, in North America, nor are they registered in South America. Carmignac Funds are registered in Singapore as restricted foreign scheme (for professional clients only). The Funds have not been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933. The Funds may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, for the benefit or on behalf of a «U.S. person», according to the definition of the US Regulation S and FATCA. In case of subscription to a fund subject to Article 19bis of the Belgian Income Tax Code (CIR92), the investor will have to pay, upon redemption of his or her shares, a withholding tax of 30% on the income (in the form of interest, or capital gains or losses) derived from the return on assets invested in debt claims. Distributions are subject to withholding tax of 30% without income distinction. In case of subscription in a French investment fund (fonds commun de placement or FCP), you must declare on tax form, each year, the share of the dividends (and interest, if applicable) received by the Fund. Any complaint may be referred to complaints@carmignac.com or CARMIGNAC GESTION - Compliance and Internal Controls - 24 place Vendôme Paris France or on the website www.ombudsfin.be.

The Management Company can cease promotion in your country anytime. Investors have access to a summary of their rights at section 5 entitled "summary of investor rights" on the following links: UK ; Switzerland ; France ; Luxembourg ; Sweden. Belgium (French) ; Belgium (Dutch)

For Carmignac Portfolio Long-Short European Equities: Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg SA in its capacity as the Management Company for Carmignac Portfolio, has delegated the investment management of this Sub-Fund to White Creek Capital LLP (Registered in England and Wales with number OCC447169) from 2nd May 2024. White Creek Capital LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with FRN : 998349.

Carmignac Private Evergreen refers to the Private Evergreen sub-fund of the SICAV Carmignac S.A. SICAV – PART II UCI, registered with the Luxembourg RCS under number B285278.