Carmignac Portfolio Emergents: Letter from the Fund Managers - Q3 2026

During the third quarter of 2026, Carmignac Portfolio Emergents F EUR Acc declined 2.50%, compared with a 0.28% gain for the reference indicator. Since the beginning of the year, the Fund has returned 29.40%, versus 27.58% for its index.

Emerging markets delivered flattish returns for the third quarter of 2026 after the exuberance of the first half, closing the period ~5% off the June highs³. Though beneath this benign headline outcome, the quarter was characterised by unusually high volatility. MSCI EM extended its strong year-to-date performance, but the path was far from straightforward: a violent de-risking episode in North Asian technology during July was followed by a sharp recovery, while higher oil prices, rising global bond yields and renewed geopolitical tensions repeatedly challenged risk appetite. By quarter end, EM had nevertheless continued to outperform developed markets, supported by exceptional earnings growth and a resilient export cycle.

Technology remained the dominant driver. Korea and Taiwan entered the quarter after an extraordinary rally in AI and memory, leaving positioning crowded and the market vulnerable to technical selling. In July, Korea corrected by more than 30% from its June peak as foreign profit taking, and a reversal of leveraged ETF flows from local retail investors amplified concerns around the sustainability of AI momentum. The KOSPI subsequently staged a rebound as strong hyperscaler results, continued memory pricing strength and shareholder-return announcements restored confidence, though the index remains 15% off the highs⁴.

Importantly, the fundamental backdrop has remained consistently stronger than the price action suggested, as demand continues to significantly outstrip supply. Korean semiconductor exports accelerated sharply through the quarter, inventories at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix reportedly fell below ten days, the companies signed an increasing proportion of long-term agreements (LTAs) and earnings estimates continued to rise.

Across emerging markets more broadly, 2026 EPS expectations were revised materially higher, while overall EM valuations remain inexpensive at around 10x forward earnings. The AI-related export cycle also broadened beyond Korea and Taiwan into Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam, reinforcing the importance of emerging markets within the global technology supply chain.

Elsewhere, performance was increasingly influenced and differentiated by exposure to commodities and interest rates. Oil remained elevated for much of the quarter amid renewed Middle East tensions, benefiting parts of Latin America while creating pressure for oil-importing economies. Brazil performed strongly, supported by favourable terms of trade, very high real interest rates and an increasingly market-sensitive election backdrop. At the time of writing, Flavio Bolsonaro has won the first round of the Brazilian election and is now very likely to secure the presidency.

By contrast, Indonesia remained particularly vulnerable to higher global yields, while India continued to lag on higher oil prices and its anti-AI perception, despite resilient economic growth and improving banking-system liquidity.

Domestic activity continued to soften in China, with weak property and household-credit data, while policymakers remained reluctant to deliver a large-scale stimulus package. At the same time, policy support for strategic technology remained strong and the Trump-Xi summit in Washington D.C. towards the end of the quarter reaffirmed a period of relative détente for Sino-US relations. Chinese technology shares nevertheless remained volatile as investors digested heavy AI capital expenditure and an unwind of crowded positions.

The quarter therefore reinforced a key feature of the current EM environment: very strong aggregate earnings growth alongside unusually high dispersion. Some broadening of earnings growth beyond the largest AI beneficiaries is encouraging, but elevated global yields, geopolitical uncertainty and increasingly concentrated market leadership sound notes of caution to what has been a remarkably resilient market.

Against this backdrop, the fund ended the quarter lower. Atypically for the fund, stock selection was a source of relative weakness this quarter, largely due to holdings in China, whilst the rotation in South Korea also detracted. This was partly offset by positive stock selection in Taiwan and Mexico, and by our underweight exposure to India, where both allocation and selection contributed positively on a relative basis.

At the sector level, Industrials was the main detractor, reflecting weakness across several of our AI infrastructure and electric-vehicle holdings. SK Square, CATL and Hans CNC weighed on performance due, respectively to rotation in Korean memory, fears changes in the EU-China trade relationship and profit taking on strong performance and high expectations. For each of these businesses we continue to believe fundamentals remain strong.

Our Technology holdings contributed positively to our performance, despite considerable volatility. Taiwan was the strongest area of stock selection, led by Asia Vital Components, which was the fund's largest positive contributor, alongside Bizlink. Samsung Electronics preferred shares were another important positive contributor, validating our strategy of positioning in the highly discounted preference shares, which grant the exposure to exactly the same asset and underlying business as the common shares, but at a ~30% discount, and with higher shareholder returns.

Brazil was a modest detractor on a relative basis this quarter, despite positive absolute returns, though this has already turned highly favourable at the outset of Q4. BBB Foods in Mexico was a strong, specific contributor as the business continues to deliver outstanding results and operational execution. Hong Kong Exchanges and New Oriental in China/HK were also positive contributors in the quarter.

Overall, the quarter was a reminder that the current opportunity in emerging markets is accompanied by unusually high dispersion and high concentration – a challenging backdrop. Several of our strongest long-term convictions (such as memory) experienced very sharp corrections even as earnings expectations continued to rise. We used this volatility selectively, trimming well at peak levels and adding on pull backs where we believed price moves had become disconnected from fundamentals.

Portfolio activity during the quarter reflected two priorities: managing the size and composition of our AI and memory exposure after an exceptional run, and reallocating capital towards new opportunities where we saw more attractive asymmetry and the ability to introduce risk diversifying exposures.

Within memory, we significantly rebalanced positions. We had reduced SK Hynix and SK Square going into Q3, but following the subsequent correction, we added back to SK Square as its discount to SK Hynix widened sharply (beyond 46%)⁵.

We continued to build selected AI infrastructure positions on weakness, adding to Bizlink, Hans CNC and Montage at different points during the quarter, while initiating a modest position in Grand Process Technology, a beneficiary of strong demand for advanced chip packaging solutions. Conversely, we trimmed Asia Vital Components after a very strong run and signs that liquid-cooling penetration on one major AI project would be slower than expected, though the near-term earnings impact appears limited and our structural thesis remains intact.

In India, we exited Policybazaar and ICICI Lombard early in the quarter, contributing to a significant reduction in the country weighting. We subsequently participated in the IPOs of Manipal Hospitals and Horizon Industrial Parks, and in the long-awaited National Stock Exchange listing. These transactions allowed us add exposure to India, selectively through businesses we view as higher quality, with stronger structural growth and competitive positioning. However, we remain underweight India overall.

In Latin America, we initiated a position in Credicorp and subsequently increased the position following meetings with management. The Peruvian macro story is among the most compelling across emerging markets, combining low public debt, large foreign-exchange reserves and a strong external position with one of the least penetrated banking systems in emerging markets. Credicorp has a leading 35% market share⁶ and its Yape (digital) platform provides a potentially powerful route to deepen financial penetration at very low funding and distribution costs. We funded part of this addition by trimming Mexican bank, Banorte, where the shares have performed well but the relative opportunity has become less compelling and the fintech strategy has disappointed.

Lastly, we also exited LG Chem following further engagement with management. Despite the potential for an updated Value-Up programme, we saw limited near-term scope for value discovery in the interest of minority shareholders, given management’s continued focus on the petrochemical turnaround.

The outlook for emerging markets remains compelling, but the third quarter demonstrated that strong fundamentals do not preclude substantial volatility. However, it is certainly worth noting that EM has now delivered its most persistent period of relative outperformance versus developed markets in a decade, while earnings expectations have continued to rise and valuations remain well below long-term averages. This combination remains supportive, particularly as the earnings recovery begins to broaden beyond the largest technology companies.

We retain a strong conviction in the structural AI and memory opportunity. Supply remains constrained, demand continues to broaden across hyperscalers and custom silicon, and cash generation at the leading Korean memory companies is truly exceptional. At the same time, the extraordinary share-price moves and increasing index concentration mean that position sizing matters more than ever. We have therefore continued to manage the exposure actively, rotating between direct memory holdings and discounted vehicles and adding selectively when technical de-risking creates opportunities.

Beyond technology, we see increasing opportunities in markets where strong external balances, high real rates and improving domestic fundamentals can support both currencies and equities. Latin America remains important in this regard. Brazil offers unusually high real yields and favourable terms of trade. We are very encouraged by the burgeoning regime change signalled from the results in the first round of the election s in early October. This potentially marks not just a change of president, but points to a meaningful shift to the centre-right, extending beyond the presidency to a much stronger position in Congress. This should improve governability and increase the likelihood of credible fiscal adjustment, addressing one of the key structural concerns weighing on Brazilian assets. For equities, a more market-friendly policy backdrop and lower fiscal risk could support lower risk premia, lower long-term rates and a broader re-rating of the Brazilian market.

China remains a difficult market for investment, with bifurcated performance between those areas exposed, and those not exposed, to the government’s drive for technology self-sufficiency and renewed regulatory hurdles. However, many valuations look increasingly attractive and we therefore continue to favour selective company-specific opportunities rather than relying on any hope of a broad macro recovery.

Overall, the environment remains well suited to active stock selection. Emerging markets offer superior earnings growth, improving shareholder returns and exposure to some of the most important structural investment themes globally, but these opportunities increasingly coexist uncomfortably with high geopolitical risk, elevated rates and the potential for sharp technical rotations. We think it’s likely that market volatility persists, but will continue to use any gyrations to selectively add to businesses where fundamentals remain intact, while maintaining discipline on valuation, concentration and overall portfolio risk.