Carmignac Portfolio Inflation Solution: Letter from the Fund Managers - Q3 2026
During the third quarter of 2026, Carmignac Portfolio Inflation Solution delivered a performance of +0.2% in line with its reference indicator. This brings the Fund’s year-to-date performance to +6.3%, compared with +2.5% for European inflation.
Market environment
The third quarter was shaped by the persistence of the AI wave, whose impact was more visible at the macroeconomic level than in equity markets, as well as by increasingly frequent discussions around inflation. Equity markets overall, including semiconductors and hyperscalers, moved relatively little, while assets positioned to benefit from inflation generally performed positively.
The flow of AI-related news remained intense, spanning new investments, debt financing and security concerns, while confidence in the technology’s improving efficiency continued to strengthen. Questions surrounding the profitability of the considerable investments still required, against a backdrop of fierce competition from Chinese solutions, probably explain the mixed quarter for equity markets. Conversely, very strong earnings growth across other sectors helped offset market concerns over the profitability of AI investments.
On the inflation front, the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Strait of Hormuz kept oil and gas prices elevated. Their contribution to inflation prompted the world’s major central banks to raise interest rates, despite the absence, so far, of second-round effects on underlying inflation. Bond yields nevertheless rose significantly, pushing real yields higher and, to a lesser extent, supporting commodities and inflation expectations.
How did we fare in this context?
Against this complex backdrop, our Fund delivered a performance of +0.2%, in line with a +0.2% increase in inflation over the quarter. In gross terms, interest-rate strategies and inflation swaps contributed +80 basis points to the Fund’s performance, while commodities added 52 basis points. Equities, meanwhile, detracted 160 basis points, mainly due to poorly timed changes in exposure. Strategies positively exposed to inflation-related assets therefore performed well, but equity positioning and exposure adjustments weighed on the Fund.
The AI wave continued to attract foreign capital towards the United States and its leading AI companies, contributing to a stronger US dollar and preventing the rotation away from the US towards the rest of the world that would typically be expected in an inflationary environment.
Outlook
In our view, the outlook remains highly supportive of higher inflation, which should ultimately weigh on equities through higher bond yields. Persistently high oil prices, declining immigration as increasingly sought by a growing number of countries, and the combination of substantial investment requirements in AI, defence and adaptation to the increasing frequency of extreme weather events should contribute to resilient growth against a backdrop of sustained inflation.
In this environment, the main risk for our Fund would be a significant economic slowdown caused by overly restrictive monetary policies. We do not consider this scenario likely, as the prospect of a sharp economic downturn is particularly concerning for policymakers given the high levels of debt in many major economies. Our view is that central banks’ response to inflation will remain limited.
As at the quarter end, Carmignac Portfolio Inflation Solution has 25% equity exposure, negative sensitivity to nominal interest rates and a sensitivity of 4 points to future inflation, alongside moderate exposure to commodities, primarily oil. US dollar exposure stands at around 10%. We believe this positioning can provide a meaningful degree of diversification within a broader asset allocation.
1Eurostat Euro HICP excluding tobacco (interpolated using daily pricing).
215/12/2023.
Carmignac Portfolio Inflation Solution
Carmignac Portfolio Inflation Solution A EUR Acc
- Recommended minimum investment horizon
- 5 years
- Risk indicator*
- 3/7
- SFDR - Fund Classification**
- Article 6
*Risk Scale from the KID (Key Information Document). Risk 1 does not mean a risk-free investment. This indicator may change over time. **Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) 2019/2088. The SFDR classification of the Funds may change over time.
Main risks of the fund
Fees
- Entry costs
- 2.00% of the amount you pay in when entering this investment. This is the most you will be charged. Carmignac Gestion doesn't charge any entry fee. The person selling you the product will inform you of the actual charge.
- Exit costs
- We do not charge an exit fee for this product.
- Management fees and other administrative or operating costs
- 1.87% of the value of your investment per year. This estimate is based on actual costs over the past year.
- Performance fees
- 20.00% when the share class overperforms the Reference indicator during the performance period. It will be payable also in case the share class has overperformed the reference indicator but had a negative performance. Underperformance is clawed back for 5 years. The actual amount will vary depending on how well your investment performs. The aggregated cost estimation above includes the average over the last 5 years, or since the product creation if it is less than 5 years.
- Transaction Cost
- 0.50% of the value of your investment per year. This is an estimate of the costs incurred when we buy and sell the investments underlying the product. The actual amount varies depending on the quantity we buy and sell.
Performance
| Carmignac Portfolio Inflation Solution | +5.7 | +12.3 | +2.4 | −0.1 |
| Reference Indicator | +2.5 | +2.1 | +1.9 | +0.0 |
| Carmignac Portfolio Inflation Solution | +4.9% | +0.0% | +7.2% |
| Reference Indicator | +2.9% | +0.0% | +2.3% |
Source: Carmignac at Sep 30, 2026.
Date of 1st NAV : 15/12/2023.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The Fund presents a risk of loss of capital.
The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.
Reference Indicator: Eurostat Euro HICP ex Tobacco index
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