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• During the month, the fund delivered a positive performance, outperforming its benchmark.• On the interest rate side, the easing of rates in the US and the UK was beneficial to our long positions in these two countries. Additionally, our long position in Norwegian rates was bolstered by the Norwegian central bank's first rate cut in five years. • On the credit side, our bond selection in our preferred sectors, such as finance and energy, as well as our selection of hard currency emerging market debt, made a positive contribution. However, this was slightly offset by the protections we put in place to reduce our exposure to credit markets amid tightening credit spreads. • Finally, on the currency front, despite the positive contribution of our exposure to the Brazilian real and the pound sterling, the portfolio was impacted by our exposure, albeit limited, to the US dollar and the Japanese yen.
• In an environment marked by uncertainty stemming from the introduction of tariffs, geopolitical conflicts and the risk of fiscal slippage in certain countries, we expect the major central banks in developed and emerging countries to maintain an accommodative stance. We are therefore maintaining a relatively high level of modified duration, between 4 and 5.• Regarding interest rates, we have a slightly long position on US rates, where the Fed is likely to remain cautious until it has more information on the impact of tariffs, but also a long position on UK rates, where economic data is deteriorating. Conversely, we have short positions in Europe and Japan, where the growth outlook is improving. Finally, we remain selective on emerging market local rates, which are benefiting from high real rates, as in Brazil, but also in some Eastern European countries. • On credit, we are maintaining significant exposure, benefiting from an attractive carry source. However, given the relatively high valuations, we remain cautious and are maintaining a high level of hedging on the iTraxx Xover to protect the portfolio from the risk of widening spreads. • Finally, in terms of currencies, we are maintaining relatively low exposure to the US dollar and limited exposure to emerging market currencies. Our currency selection includes Latin American currencies (the Brazilian real and Chilean peso) and commodity-linked currencies (the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone). Finally, we are maintaining a long position on the Japanese yen, as the Bank of Japan is likely to be the only central bank to raise rates this year.
Bonds | 93.8 % |
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Derivatives Operations | 5.8 % |
Equities | 0.4 % |
Money Market | 0 % |
The flexibility of our investment process allows us to take advantage of all performance drivers offered by the fixed income universe, and thus to build a diversified portfolio based on solid convictions.
Market environment
• In the United States, GDP growth was revised down to -0.5% in the first quarter, while leading indicators sent mixed signals. While PMI indices surprised on the upside, consumer confidence and household income declined, and core inflation came in higher than expected at +2.7%. • The Federal Reserve kept its key interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.50% range while delivering a less accommodative message than expected by raising its inflation forecasts. • In the eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its key interest rate as expected by 25 basis points to 2.0%. Although this was widely anticipated, Christine Lagarde nevertheless adopted a more restrictive tone than expected regarding the outlook for inflation. • Tensions in the Middle East initially pushed oil prices above $80 per barrel, but they fell by more than 10% after the ceasefire was announced, which also contributed to a tightening of credit spreads by 18 basis points on the Markit iTraxx Crossover index. • In June, rates moved in different directions, with the 10-year rate in the US easing by 17 bp on the back of weaker economic data, while its German counterpart rose by 11 bp. • On the currency front, the dollar continued to fall against the euro, reaching its lowest level since 2021, mainly due to the repatriation of assets amid uncertainty over the impact of the trade war. In this context, most currencies suffered against the strength of the euro, although the Brazilian real and Eastern European currencies (the Hungarian forint, Czech koruna and Polish zloty) fared well, thanks to attractive carry.