INSIGHTS

The shock to confidence affecting all economic agents seems hardly conducive to a V-shaped recovery.

The shock to confidence affecting all economic agents seems hardly conducive to a V-shaped recovery.

Periods of panic are the mirror image of periods of exuberance. They take their start from concrete facts which are then escalated into extreme anticipations

Periods of panic are the mirror image of periods of exuberance: they take their start from concrete facts which are then escalated into extreme anticipations

It’s in China where we currently see an expanding range of equity investment opportunities

It’s in China where we currently see an expanding range of equity investment opportunities

The secular slowdown and the liquidity bubble reinforce our long-term convictions.

The secular slowdown and the liquidity bubble reinforce our long-term convictions.

None of the roads open to investors in this late-cycle period looks like it will lead very far

The current balance is threatened by a possible US monetary policy lag behind the global economic slowdown

China won’t be kick-starting the world economy the way it did in 2016. So that leaves the job up to the Fed

In this late-cycle period, it is important to maintain our disciplined market analysis so that we can continue to distinguish between noise and signal

In this late-cycle period, it is important to maintain our disciplined market analysis so that we can continue to distinguish between noise and signal

For the first time in thirty years, geopolitics could once again take precedence over world trade

For the first time in thirty years, geopolitics could once again take precedence over world trade

Going forward, the main question-mark facing investors is to what extent monetary and fiscal policy will succeed in stemming the economic slowdown

Going forward, the main question-mark facing investors is to what extent monetary and fiscal policy will succeed in stemming the economic slowdown

In this slow-growth phase, stock price dispersion could strongly influence portfolio returns, contrary to what happened in 2018

The upside of this slow-growth phase is that stock price dispersion could heavily influence portfolio returns, contrary to 2018

As we enter 2019, the underlying issues still haven’t been addressed. The global economic slowdown has become synchronised, and monetary policy has tightened

As we enter 2019, the underlying issues still haven’t been addressed. The global economic slowdown has become synchronised, and monetary policy has tightened

The end of a given monetary policy stimulus unavoidably raises the cost of risk, thereby reducing price/earnings ratios

The key question is whether protectionism will actually prove beneficial to the US economy. Chances are it won’t.

A simultaneous end to three cycles – monetary, business and political – still constitutes the primary problem facing financial markets