The Fund delivered a positive performance in August, in line with its performance indicator.
Our carry strategies were the strongest contributors to the Fund's performance, alongside developed and emerging sovereign rates, which benefited from the easing trend.
Our inflation-linked strategies were negative contributors to performance, alongside our credit protections, which suffered from the tightening of credit spreads in the second half of the month.
In view of sharply tighter valuations, we took profits on sovereign rates and increased our credit protection at the end of the period.
We remain in line with a soft landing scenario. Companies are not laying off workers, as it is still very difficult to hire. Consumers are pessimistic, but continue to spend heavily.
The market is now expecting a sequence of major rate cuts, while the yield curve is still underestimating the fiscal indiscipline of economic agents.
Inflation is slowing down, in line with expectations. Nevertheless, the market seems over-optimistic about the normalization of inflation over the next few quarters.
In view of these observations, we are maintaining a cautious stance on the portfolio's interest-rate sensitivity, with a strategy of steepening the yield curves and a marked appetite for inflation products.
Europe | 67.1 % |
North America | 10.4 % |
Latin America | 7.8 % |
Eastern Europe | 7.2 % |
Middle East | 2.8 % |
Africa | 2.7 % |
Asia-Pacific | 1.0 % |
Asia | 1.0 % |
Total % of bonds | 100.0 % |
Market environment
August was marked by a resurgence of stress in the early days of the month, followed by a return of risk appetite in anticipation of Federal Reserve forthcoming easing.
The slowdown in job creation and the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% across the Atlantic were the main catalysts for the risk of a hard landing scenario for the US economy.
Nevertheless, central bankers' more dovish-than-expected stance, coupled with favorable growth (upward revision of US GDP, rebound in retail sales) and inflation figures, enabled the market to recover.
The situation was similar in the eurozone, which benefited from a slowdown in inflation and wage growth, while the PMI leading indicator showed an acceleration in private-sector activity.
Despite risk aversion at the start of the month, credit spreads on the Itraxx Xover index tightened by -10bp, while the euro and US yield curves steepened, with 2-year yields easing by -14bp and -34bp respectively.