Carmignac Sécurité: Letter from the Fund Managers
(AW EUR Acc Share class).
In the first quarter of 2024, Carmignac Sécurité gained 1.41%, while its reference indicator1 fell by 0.12%.
What happened on the fixed income markets during the quarter?
The euphoria surrounding sovereign interest rates at the end of the year was short-lived. In the first few weeks of January, the resilience of economic activity, especially in the United States where growth continues to levitate above its potential, the surge in risky assets driven by the acceleration of the artificial intelligence theme, and record bond issuances to finance public deficits that are only gradually being normalised, brought global yields up to levels close to those recorded on average for the year 2023. But it was above all the hopes of disinflation, raised by the strong progress made in the second half of 2023, that were clearly dashed by the upward surprises in consumer price indices in January and February in the United States, and to a lesser extent in Europe. Against this disinflationary backdrop, the markets, which were anticipating more than six rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in 2024, are now incorporating only 2.5 and 3.5 cuts respectively. The German 2-year rate jumped from 2.40% to 2.85% over the quarter, and the German 10-year rate from 2.02% to 2.30%. Similarly, the US 10-year rate rose from 3.88% to 4.20%.
On the other hand, the environment was more favourable for risky assets. Economic activity, although slowed in Europe by tighter financial conditions and the energy shock, is showing signs of resilience and should even pick up slightly in the second half of the year, supported by the rebound in real wages and the deployment of European funds. And market volatility has fallen sharply, particularly on interest rates, thanks to the central banks, which have explicitly indicated that they have reached the peak of their monetary tightening. As a result, high-yield credit spreads in Europe are now below the floor of 300 basis points, a low point since the invasion of Ukraine, after having tightened against German bonds by more than 25 basis points. Spreads on Italian sovereign bonds were similarly squeezed, despite a deficit that continues to surprise on the upside, impacted by the cost of the property 'superbonus', which is difficult to curb.
Performance
Against this backdrop, three factors can explain Carmignac Sécurité's absolute and relative outperformance. Firstly, the Fund is ideally positioned to benefit from carry strategies, which, following the historic rise in European interest rates and the inversion of yield curves, have made a comeback, particularly on the shortest maturities. As a result, Carmignac Sécurité has a yield to maturity of almost 5%, one of the highest levels of carry since the sovereign debt crisis. This is mainly due to an increased allocation to credit markets (nearly 60% of assets), mainly focused on good quality, short maturity bonds, as well as an allocation to money markets (nearly 18% of assets). Secondly, the Fund benefited significantly from the compression of credit margins in its three current preferred segments: financial subordinated debt (8.4% of outstandings), the energy sector (10.8% of outstandings) and CLOs (9.2% of outstandings). Finally, after having been a key performance driver in the last quarter of 2023, modified duration has been sharply reduced, falling from 3 in November to almost 1.5 in January, and stabilising at around 2 in the last part of the quarter. The duration come mainly from the portfolio's corporate bonds and inflation-linked bonds, which also tempered the impact of rising rates on the portfolio.
Outlook & positioning
Finally, we are approaching the second quarter as we did 2024: confident about the Fund's performance potential. After more than 18 months of historic drawdown on the fixed income markets, the asset class harbours many opportunities. Just look at the portfolio's yield to maturity. Hovering between 4.5% and 5%, this will once again be the main driver of performance over the coming quarters. On the interest rate front, the Fund's sensitivity remains at moderate levels, close to 2. The market seems to us to have incorporated a scenario close to that of the ECB and ours, namely a first cut in June, for a total of 3 to 4 cuts this year. We are maintaining our upward positions on inflation, as the market seems to be claiming victory a little too quickly, particularly given the geopolitical risks and the failure to reduce deficits. We also initiated a position to steepen the yield curves, which remain at record inversion levels. Finally, on the credit side, we are maintaining a significant allocation, close to 2/3 of the portfolio, concentrated on highly rated and short dated bonds, providing the bulk of the Fund's carry. Financials, the energy sector and CLOs remain our 3 strongest convictions in this market segment. We also have tactical protection via the iTraxx Xover index, which is trading at its lowest point since the invasion of Ukraine, despite a rise in credit events, particularly affecting large caps such as Altice, Atos and Intrum.
1ICE BofA ML 1-3 Y Euro All Government Index (EUR).
Source: Carmignac, Bloomberg as at 28 Mar 2024.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor).
Carmignac Sécurité
Carmignac Sécurité AW EUR Acc
- Empfohlene Mindestanlagedauer
- 2 Jahre
- Risikoskala*
- 2/7
- SFDR-Klassifizierung**
- Artikel 8
*Die Definition der Risikoskala finden Sie im KID/BIB (Basisinformationsblatt). Das Risiko 1 ist nicht eine risikolose Investition. Dieser Indikator kann sich im Laufe der Zeit verändern. **Die Offenlegungsverordnung (Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation - SFDR) 2019/2088. Die SFDR-Klassifizierung der Fonds kann sich im Laufe der Zeit ändern.
Hauptrisiken des Fonds
Kosten
- Einstiegskosten
- 1.00% des Betrags, den Sie beim Einstieg in diese Anlage zahlen. Dies ist der Höchstbetrag, der Ihnen berechnet wird. Carmignac Gestion erhebt keine Eintrittsgebühr. Die Person, die Ihnen das Produkt verkauft, teilt Ihnen die tatsächliche Gebühr mit.
- Ausstiegskosten
- Wir berechnen keine Ausstiegsgebühr für dieses Produkt.
- Verwaltungsgebühren und sonstige Verwaltungs- oder Betriebskosten
- 1.11% des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung auf der Grundlage der tatsächlichen Kosten des letzten Jahres.
- Erfolgsgebühren
- Für dieses Produkt wird keine erfolgsabhängige Provision berechnet.
- Transaktionskosten
- 0.11% des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung der Kosten, die anfallen, wenn wir die Basiswerte für das Produkt kaufen oder verkaufen. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie viel wir kaufen und verkaufen.
Performance
| Carmignac Sécurité | −0.0 | +2.3 | +5.3 | +4.1 | −4.8 | +0.2 | +2.0 | +3.6 | −3.0 | +0.0 |
| Referenzindikator | +0.2 | +2.3 | +3.2 | +3.4 | −4.8 | −0.7 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| Carmignac Sécurité | +3.4% | +1.3% | +0.9% |
| Referenzindikator | +2.5% | +0.8% | +0.3% |
Quelle: Carmignac Stand 30. Okt 2026.
Wertentwicklungen der Vergangenheit lassen keine Rückschlüsse auf zukünftige Wertverläufe zu. Wertentwicklung nach Gebühren (keine Berücksichtigung von Ausgabeaufschlägen die durch die Vertriebsstelle erhoben werden können) Der Fonds ist mit einem Kapitalverlustrisiko verbunden.
Bei den nicht währungsgesicherten Anteilen kann die Rendite aufgrund von Währungsschwankungen steigen oder fallen.
Referenzindikator: ICE BofA 1-3 Year All Euro Government index