Carmignac P. Credit: Letter from the Fund Managers
Carmignac Portfolio Credit was up 2.48% (for the EUR A share) during the third quarter of 2024 versus 3.33% for the reference indicator, underperforming by -0.85%. Since the beginning of the year, the fund is up 7.44% versus 4.55% for the reference indicator, outperforming by 2.89%.
Review of Q3 2024 performance
All the performance drivers of the strategy have been contributing meaningfully to the fund’s return so far in 2024. The main detractor was a distressed debt position that has suffered from a combination of negative short-term news and poor technicals. Most of that negative contribution happened during the third quarter, resulting in the fund's relative underperformance during that period. We remain comfortable with the investment thesis for this position and know, from experience, that restructuring investments need time to be fruitful. Already the newsflow about this issuer is improving and the management team is adopting a proactive financial communications strategy.
As we look forward toward the next quarters, we remain excited about the potential for the fund’s performance. Credit markets, benefiting from strong technical and macro factors, are overall richly valued – although not quite at the peak valuations observed during the past decade – yet dispersion is elevated and we see many pockets of value.
In the financial sector, we find many investments offering a healthy spread premium, compared to general market valuations, at equivalent fundamental risk. This is a funding intensive industry by nature while many investors are still seared by memories of the Great Financial Crisis and of more recent idiosyncratic incidents (such as the Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank episodes) and hence defiant. This creates an imbalance between the demand and supply of capital that needs to be resolved by higher spreads. Nonetheless, the sector as a whole is in robust shape, after more than 15 years of capital accumulation and conservative regulation, and these premiums are in some cases very attractive.
The structured credit universe offers a similarly exciting combination of unjustified taint and extremely robust fundamentals resulting in attractive risk rewards that we capture in our investments in CLO tranches. The weight of CLO tranches in the fund has decreased as positions have been refinanced while we didn’t participate in many of the new structures. Towards the end of the quarter, as the quality of documentations improved, we made a few promising investments. Interestingly, in a marked change to recent years, we have started to perceive better value (after the cost of currency hedging) in some USD tranches.
Natural resources is also an opportunity-rich sector as it combines capital intensity and limited marginal appetite from many debt investors that implement too strict responsible investment strategies. There again, we find a number of investments that remunerate us much in excess of the cost of risk implied by their strong fundamentals.
The primary market has been extremely dynamic in the past quarters, with new issuers regularly making their debut on the bond market. Roadshows are typically short and good companies are frequently mis-assessed and come to market with attractive yields. We have made a number of well-timed investments in this fashion since the beginning of the year and the icing on the cake is that we can build sizeable positions with no transaction costs.
Last but certainly not least, companies that overlevered before 2022 in the context of low financing costs are facing increasing difficulties to service their debts in a world where the cost of capital has normalized. The default rate has thus been picking up. So far the availability of abundant private capital and the implementation of semi-consensual liability management schemes have dampened the impact of this regime change but we believe the frequency and severity of defaults is about to pick up. This will likely be a great source of asymmetric opportunities over the next couple of years.
Outlook
In summary, we are very excited for the potential future returns and would be disappointed if Carmignac Portfolio Credit does not offer a mid-to-high single digit compounded return in the next two to three years. At the end of September the portfolio is yielding c.6.6% for a BB+ average rating, and accounting for our 21%+ hedging position through CDX high yield and Xover, the yield is close to 6% for an average BBB- rating. In addition, we have several special situations in the book where we see strong upside potential. Given the depth of the opportunity set across our investment universe, we are keeping the fund very diversified, with more than 250 positions and 150 issuers, and hence very liquid.
1Reference indicator: 75% BofA Merrill Lynch Euro Corporate Index, 25% BofA Merrill Lynch Euro High Yield Index. 231/07/2017. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). Marketing communication. Please refer to the KID/prospectus of the fund before making any final investment decisions.
Carmignac Portfolio Credit
Carmignac Portfolio Credit A EUR Acc
- Empfohlene Mindestanlagedauer
- 3 Jahre
- Risikoskala*
- 2/7
- SFDR-Klassifizierung**
- Artikel 6
*Die Definition der Risikoskala finden Sie im KID/BIB (Basisinformationsblatt). Das Risiko 1 ist nicht eine risikolose Investition. Dieser Indikator kann sich im Laufe der Zeit verändern. **Die Offenlegungsverordnung (Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation - SFDR) 2019/2088. Die SFDR-Klassifizierung der Fonds kann sich im Laufe der Zeit ändern.
Hauptrisiken des Fonds
Kosten
- Einstiegskosten
- 2.00% des Betrags, den Sie beim Einstieg in diese Anlage zahlen. Dies ist der Höchstbetrag, der Ihnen berechnet wird. Carmignac Gestion erhebt keine Eintrittsgebühr. Die Person, die Ihnen das Produkt verkauft, teilt Ihnen die tatsächliche Gebühr mit.
- Ausstiegskosten
- Wir berechnen keine Ausstiegsgebühr für dieses Produkt.
- Verwaltungsgebühren und sonstige Verwaltungs- oder Betriebskosten
- 1.20% des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung auf der Grundlage der tatsächlichen Kosten des letzten Jahres.
- Erfolgsgebühren
- 20.00% wenn die Anteilsklasse während des Performancezeitraums den Referenzindikator übertrifft. Sie ist auch dann zahlbar, wenn die Anteilsklasse den Referenzindikator übertroffen, aber eine negative Performance verzeichnet hat. Minderleistung wird für 5 Jahre zurückgefordert. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie gut sich Ihre Investition entwickelt. Die obige aggregierte Kostenschätzung enthält den Durchschnitt der letzten 5 Jahre oder seit der Produkterstellung, wenn es weniger als 5 Jahre sind.
- Transaktionskosten
- 0.23% des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung der Kosten, die anfallen, wenn wir die Basiswerte für das Produkt kaufen oder verkaufen. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie viel wir kaufen und verkaufen.
Performance
| Carmignac Portfolio Credit | −1.5 | +6.7 | +8.2 | +10.6 | −13.0 | +3.0 | +10.4 | +20.9 | +1.7 | +1.8 |
| Referenzindikator | −0.6 | +3.6 | +5.7 | +9.0 | −13.3 | +0.1 | +2.8 | +7.5 | −1.7 | +1.1 |
| Carmignac Portfolio Credit | +6.4% | +1.8% | +4.9% |
| Referenzindikator | +4.6% | +0.6% | +1.3% |
Quelle: Carmignac Stand 30. Okt 2026.
Datum des ersten NAV : 31/07/2017.
Wertentwicklungen der Vergangenheit lassen keine Rückschlüsse auf zukünftige Wertverläufe zu. Wertentwicklung nach Gebühren (keine Berücksichtigung von Ausgabeaufschlägen die durch die Vertriebsstelle erhoben werden können) Der Fonds ist mit einem Kapitalverlustrisiko verbunden.
Bei den nicht währungsgesicherten Anteilen kann die Rendite aufgrund von Währungsschwankungen steigen oder fallen.
Referenzindikator: 75% ICE BofA Euro Corporate Index + 25% ICE BofA Euro High Yield index. Häufigkeit der Neugewichtung: Quartalsweise