Alternative strategies

Carmignac Portfolio Absolute Return Europe

Share Class

LU2923680206

Comments from the Investment Team

Read the Investment team's analysis below.

Carmignac Portfolio Absolute Return Europe Monthly comments

Data as of:  30 Sep 2026.
The Investment team

Johan FREDRIKSSON

Fund Manager

Market Environment

  • September has historically been the worst month of the year for European equities & true to form started by having its worst month since March as oil & yields continued to rip higher. The US 30 year yield back at 2007 levels, while the commodities index traded at record highs. After pulling back 5% from its August high, Europe flashed technically oversold for the first time since March, to then bounce off the lows.
  • Performance was also weak across the major country indices: France’s CAC 40 fell 4.4%, Germany’s DAX 4.0%, Spain’s IBEX 2.7% and the UK’s FTSE 100 2.0%.
  • Sector breadth was notably poor, with 15 of 17 STOXX 600 sectors declining. Oil & Gas (+2.8%) was the strongest sector, supported by elevated energy prices, followed by Technology (+2.0%), which benefited from continued AI/semiconductor enthusiasm. At the other end, Autos & Parts (-8.1%) was the weakest sector, followed by Financial Services (-7.1%) and Basic Resources (-6.7%). Overall, September represented a rotation away from cyclical/rate-sensitive areas while energy and technology provided the main pockets of resilience

Performance Commentary

  • The Equity book delivered 0.59% positive return, with index and single stock hedges costing -0.55%
  • Top Contributors
  • Meta – Shares rebounded from oversold levels, supported by the launch of its new agentic AI tool, Muse.
  • ASM International – Benefited from the broader rally across semiconductors and semi-equipment.
  • TSMC – Supported by strong monthly sales data and the broader semiconductor rally.
  • Zegona – Management finally clarified its cash-return policy, implying a 9%+ dividend yield.
  • Cellnex (Short) – Shares declined as concerns around the potential AI disruption of the telecom sector intensified.
  • Top Detractors
  • Hemnet – Shares fell following the unexpected suspension of the ongoing share buyback, which also signalled a shift in management’s capital-allocation strategy.
  • flatexDEGIRO – An unexpected management and CEO change created uncertainty around the company’s strategic direction.
  • Scout24 – Weighed down by broader weakness in classifieds, as concerns around potential AI disruption continued to increase.
  • Halma – Shares remained surprisingly weak despite stronger US peers and an upgrade to management’s margin targets.

Outlook and Investment Strategy

  • Cautiously constructive on European equities into October, although volatility is likely to remain elevated. Following the 2.5% decline in the STOXX Europe 600 in September, positioning and valuations look somewhat cleaner heading into Q4.
  • Seasonality should become less of a headwind, with October historically a transition month ahead of the typically stronger November–December period.
  • Rates and energy remain the key macro risks. Following the ECB’s 25bp September hike amid higher energy-driven inflation, European equities remain sensitive to bond yields and further inflation surprises.
  • Attention should increasingly shift towards Q3 earnings, providing a more bottom-up, stock-specific environment. Consensus expects STOXX 600 earnings growth of ~19% YoY, or closer to 10% excluding Energy, with Technology expectations improving materially to ~24%.
  • Following September’s sell-off, the earnings hurdle may now be more manageable, although forward guidance will likely matter more than backward-looking Q3 numbers.
  • We see meaningful upside potential within the portfolio as the market refocuses on company-specific fundamentals, earnings and corporate newsflow, rather than the macro-driven trading dominated by rates, oil and broader risk sentiment seen in recent weeks.
  • Overall, we believe a return to greater single-stock differentiation and dispersion should provide a more favourable backdrop for fundamental Long/Short alpha generation on both sides of the book

Performance scenarios

The figures shown include all the costs of the product itself, but may not include all the costs that you pay to your advisor or distributor. The figures do not take into account your personal tax situation, which may also affect how much you get back. What you will get from this product depends on future market performance. Market developments in the future are uncertain and cannot be accurately predicted. The unfavourable, moderate, and favourable scenarios shown are illustrations using the worst, average, and best performance of the product over the last 10 years. Markets could develop very differently in the future. This table shows the money you could get back over the next 3 years, under different scenarios, assuming that you invest 10 000 €.

Performance scenarios

Data as of:  Sep 2026.
Scenarios
If you exit after 1 year
If you exit after 3 years
Stress
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
€ 5860
−41.35%
€ 6500
−13.38%
Unfavourable
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
€ 8650
−13.46%
€ 9070
−3.20%
Moderate
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
€ 9850
−1.48%
€ 10440
+1.46%
Favourable
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
€ 11710
+17.11%
€ 11900
+5.98%
The unfavourable scenario occurred for an investment between 01/2025 and 09/2026.
The moderate scenario occurred for an investment between 05/2018 and 05/2021.
The favourable scenario occurred for an investment between 09/2019 and 09/2022.
Source: Carmignac at 30 Sep 2026.

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Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice.
The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager.
Carmignac Portfolio is a sub-fund of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive.
The information presented above is not contractually binding and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor), where applicable. Investors may lose some or all of their capital, as the capital in the UCI is not guaranteed. Access to the products and services presented herein may be restricted for some individuals or countries. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The risks, fees and recommended investment period for the UCI presented are detailed in the KIDs (key information documents) and prospectuses available on this website. The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to purchase.). The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCITS or the manager.