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• In this volatile environment, Carmignac Patrimoine demonstrated its ability to navigate market turbulence, ending the month with a positive return and outperforming both equity and bond markets.• The fund benefited from its flexible and active management approach across both bond and equity segments. • During the first half of the month, the fund limited losses through cautious positioning on US rates and the dollar, as well as hedging on risk assets. • Subsequently, profit-taking on option strategies, increased allocations, and disciplined stock selection enabled the fund to benefit from the market rebound.
• The market is anticipating a sharp slowdown in the US. While we are less pessimistic, we remain vigilant given ongoing political uncertainty and persistent inflationary pressures.• For risk assets, we are maintaining exposure of around 35% to equities and a relatively large exposure to credit, though this is somewhat limited due to high valuations. • Our modified duration remains low in both Europe and the US. In Europe, the market is already pricing in an accommodative policy with a terminal rate near 1.5%, while in the US, recession risks remain elevated. • We continue to hold a significant position in inflation expectations, which are still low. • Additionally, we maintain a strong exposure to the euro versus the dollar and an allocation of around 3% to gold mining companies.
Equities | 42.8 % |
Bonds | 38.9 % |
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Derivatives Operations | 9.4 % |
Money Market | 8.8 % |
Thanks to its flexible and holistic approach to investing, Patrimoine became a synonym of an “invest and forget” solution for investors that want to gradually grow their savings over time, without worrying about market timing or economic cycles.
Market environment
• April 2025 saw significant volatility in financial markets, with a sharp correction quickly followed by an equally strong rebound, resulting in only modest net changes by month-end.• The month began with Donald Trump announcing higher tariffs than markets had expected. Dubbed “Freedom Day” by the US president, this move reignited fears of a US recession and triggered a crisis of confidence, leading investors to exit riskier assets and US holdings such as the dollar and Treasury bonds. • In response to the market downturn, Trump suspended most tariff measures for 90 days (except for those targeting China), which allowed equity markets to recover. • European and emerging market equities outperformed US markets, while interest rates experienced pronounced swings. • In the US, the yield curve steepened as markets began to price in four Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end. • Credit spreads widened significantly after the tariff announcement but narrowed again as market conditions improved. • Gold was the standout performer, reaching record highs, while oil prices dropped sharply on concerns about an economic slowdown. • On the macroeconomic front, uncertainty over trade barriers began to weigh on US leading indicators, particularly consumer sentiment, raising fears of stagflation in the coming months.