Carmignac Sécurité

• In the United States, GDP growth was revised down to -0.5% in the first quarter, while leading indicators sent mixed signals. While PMI indices surprised on the upside, consumer confidence and household income declined, and core inflation came in higher than expected at +2.7%. • The Federal Reserve kept its key interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.50% range while delivering a less accommodative message than expected by raising its inflation forecasts.
• In the eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its key interest rate as expected by 25 basis points to 2.0%. Although this was widely anticipated, Christine Lagarde nevertheless adopted a more restrictive tone than expected regarding the outlook for inflation.
• Tensions in the Middle East initially pushed oil prices above $80 per barrel, but they fell by more than 10% after the ceasefire was announced, which also contributed to a tightening of credit spreads by 18 basis points on the Markit iTraxx Crossover index.
• In June, rates moved in different directions, with the 10-year rate in the US easing by 17 bp on the back of weaker economic data, while its German counterpart rose by 11 bp.

• In an uncertain market environment, the Fund delivered a positive absolute performance, outperforming its benchmark over the month. • On the sovereign bond side, our eurozone curve steepening strategy and our short positions on French debt made a slightly positive contribution.
• In credit, the portfolio benefited from its carry strategies, with a positive contribution from our financials, particularly subordinated bonds.
• Finally, the portfolio benefited from our selection of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and our exposure to money market instruments.

• Given the risks associated with the uncertainty caused by the introduction of tariffs, geopolitical conflicts and the risk of budgetary slippage in a context of increasingly strained valuations in certain markets, the portfolio maintained a balanced positioning with modified duration fluctuating between 1.6 and 1.7 during the month. This modified duration is mainly concentrated in the short end of the curve.• On the one hand, the portfolio benefits from a significant allocation to credit, mainly invested in short-term, well-rated corporate bonds and CLOs, which offer an attractive source of carry and reduced beta relative to market volatility.
• On the other hand, we are taking a cautious stance on rates, particularly in Europe, where we favor a yield curve steepening strategy, options to hedge against rate rises, and inflation products, against a backdrop of fiscal expansion.
• We are also maintaining protection on the credit market (iTraxx Xover), as markets are trading at tight levels amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
• Finally, we have allocated part of the portfolio to money market instruments, which are an attractive source of carry with limited risk.