Alternative strategies

Carmignac Portfolio Absolute Return Europe

Share Class

LU2923680545

Comments from the Investment Team

Read the Investment team's analysis below.

Carmignac Portfolio Absolute Return Europe Monthly comments

Data as of:  Nov 28, 2025.
The Investment team

Johan FREDRIKSSON

Fund Manager

Dean SMITH

Fund Manager

Market Environment

  • November followed a pattern similar to October, marked by significant intramonth volatility. A reassessment of AI-related expectations triggered a sharp mid-month sell-off in Technology and adjacent sectors.
  • This move was intensified by concerns that a December rate cut may not materialize. However, softer macroeconomic data later in the month pushed bond yields lower, supporting a rapid rebound in equity markets.
  • European assets outperformed the US during this period of volatility, supported by falling gas prices, improving PMI data, benign inflation trends and increasing optimism around potential progress toward a peace agreement in Ukraine.
  • The strongest performance came from Healthcare, Banks, Construction, Food & Beverage, and Insurance.
  • The main laggards were Information Technology, Industrials and Retail.

Performance Commentary

  • November was a strong month for alpha generation. The portfolio delivered a positive return, with equal contributions from both long and short positions.
  • At the sector level, the strongest returns came from Financials, supported by solid performance from the banks and a takeover bid by Deutsche Börse for fund administrator Allfunds Group.
  • Additional positive contributions came from Healthcare, Materials, Communication Services and Industrials.
  • The main detractors were Technology, which experienced an AI-driven pullback, and Consumer Discretionary.
  • Key stock selection winners included long positions in Noba Bank (strong IPO debut), Banca Monte de Paschi (supported by earnings upgrades), and a short position in a US software company.
  • Detractors included ASM International, which declined on concerns about AI beneficiaries, and Fresenius, our largest position which fell due to fears of AI disrupting data-driven businesses.

Outlook and Investment Strategy

  • It was an active month requiring disciplined risk management to protect capital during the mid-month sell-off.
  • Net exposure was reduced from the mid-20s% to the mid/high-teens during the drawdown.
  • As markets stabilized and macro indicators turned more supportive, we used the weakness in preferred names to rebuild exposure, ending the month with a net exposure of 27%. Gross exposure remained within a range of 117%–120%.
  • At the sector level, we reduced exposure to Technology and Consumer Discretionary. We added to Financials and Industrials post-sell-off, and shifted Utilities and Materials from net short to small net long.
  • As we enter December, attention now turns to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Markets are currently pricing in a ~90% probability of a rate cut.
  • The main risk is that markets are already priced in, or the Fed’s cautious tone limits further gains.
  • In Europe, sentiment is receiving some tentative support from more “constructive” signals in Ukraine–Russia discussions, though this remains highly fluid and past attempts have frequently faltered.

Performance scenarios

The figures shown include all the costs of the product itself, but may not include all the costs that you pay to your advisor or distributor. The figures do not take into account your personal tax situation, which may also affect how much you get back. What you will get from this product depends on future market performance. Market developments in the future are uncertain and cannot be accurately predicted. The unfavourable, moderate, and favourable scenarios shown are illustrations using the worst, average, and best performance of the product over the last 10 years. Markets could develop very differently in the future. This table shows the money you could get back over the next 5 years, under different scenarios, assuming that you invest 10 000 €.

Performance scenarios

Data as of:  Sep 2025.
Scenarios
If you exit after 1 year
If you exit after 3 years
Stress
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
6100 €
-39.00 %
6800 €
-12.06 %
Unfavourable
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
9090 €
-9.10 %
9640 €
-1.21 %
Moderate
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
10610 €
+6.10 %
11440 €
+4.59 %
Favourable
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
12300 €
+23.00 %
13510 €
+10.55 %
The unfavourable scenario occurred for an investment between 06/2024 and 09/2025.
The moderate scenario occurred for an investment between 12/2019 and 12/2022.
The favourable scenario occurred for an investment between 02/2016 and 02/2019.
Source: Carmignac at Sep 30, 2025.

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Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice.
The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager.
Carmignac Portfolio is a sub-fund of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive.
The information presented above is not contractually binding and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor), where applicable. Investors may lose some or all of their capital, as the capital in the UCI is not guaranteed. Access to the products and services presented herein may be restricted for some individuals or countries. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The risks, fees and recommended investment period for the UCI presented are detailed in the KIDs (key information documents) and prospectuses available on this website. The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to purchase.). The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCITS or the manager.