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The US shows early signs of stagflation, while Europe’s recovery is likely delayed until 2026.
Powell hinted at cuts, but markets overstate the Fed’s willingness to ease. Rising deficits and credibility risks support inflation-linked assets.
In Europe, we remain cautious on long sovereigns—particularly France—while maintaining exposure to inflation given elevated real rates.
We stay constructive on equities, with high exposure supported by the current environment. Our core allocation targets the US and Asian AI-driven capex cycle, complemented by diversified holdings across regions and sectors.
In currencies, we expect the US dollar to weaken further, pressured by fiscal laxity, Fed credibility concerns, and hedging flows.
We are maintaining our current fund allocation unchanged.
On the equity side, we are invested in Carmignac Portfolio Investissement and Carmignac Portfolio Grandchildren.
On the fixed income side, we hold positions in Carmignac Portfolio Credit and Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond strategies.
Finally, within our alternatives allocation, we hold investments in Carmignac Absolute Return Europe and Carmignac Portfolio Merger Arbitrage Plus.
Equity Strategies | 39.2 % |
Fixed Income Strategies | 38.1 % |
Alternative strategies | 20.7 % |
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Derivatives Operations | 2 % |
The strategy offers a balanced and diversified exposure to markets, benefiting from Carmignac's expertise in the equity, bond and alternative asset classes.”
Market environment
Global markets posted strong gains in USD terms, with both equities and bonds advancing. However, the weaker dollar against the euro translated into negative performance in euro terms.
US labour market data signalled a slowdown, prompting Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole to hint at possible rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in a 25 bps reduction in September.
Political tensions in the US intensified as President Trump dismissed the head of the BLS and moved to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about central bank independence.
The US yield curve steepened, with long-end yields climbing on worries over Fed independence.
In Europe, political risk re-emerged as the French Prime Minister faced a no-confidence vote. France remains a fiscal outlier within the Eurozone, amplifying investor unease.
Eurozone yields moved higher, supported by improved growth sentiment, while July inflation data came in line with expectations.
Global equities hit new highs, buoyed by reduced tariff-related noise following the 1 August deadline, stronger US GDP growth, and rising expectations of Fed rate cuts in September.
The AI trade maintained strong momentum, with Nvidia reaching new all-time highs after robust results.
Trade tensions lingered as the US raised tariffs, including a 50% levy on Russian oil imports via India. Commodity markets diverged: oil and gas prices declined, while gold rallied.