Carmignac Patrimoine

• The US economy remains resilient, with growth expanding by 0.7% qoq in the second quarter—slightly above expectations. US CPI inflation also increased in June, with the core rate moving closer to 3% year-on-year.• In contrast, eurozone growth was more moderate, rising by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter. Headline inflation in the eurozone edged up to the target of 2% year-on-year in June.
• The Fed has kept rates on hold—despite continued pressure from Trump—while the ECB has also opted to pause.
• The announcement of new US trade agreements with major partners including Japan and the EU, as well as the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, provided increased policy clarity.
• Risk assets responded positively. US stocks outperformed once again, with significant gains among leading AI-related companies.
• US Treasury yields rose in July, reflecting both a more optimistic growth outlook and increased market concerns about the fiscal situation.
• Eurozone government bond yields also drifted higher due to generally positive growth sentiment.
• The US dollar strengthened in July—its first monthly gain of 2025—driven by robust US economic data, consistent Fed messaging, and a reversal in previously bearish market positions.

• In this context, the fund delivered a positive performance, outperforming its reference indicator.• Nearly all asset classes within the portfolio contributed positively, with the exception of currencies.
• Stock selection proved particularly effective, notably driven by TSMC and major US technology names such as Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon.
• The financial sector also made a significant contribution, both through equity exposure – with UBS – and through corporate bonds, where our overweight stance was well rewarded.
• Our positioning on sovereign rates was also supportive: the portfolio's overall short duration bias in both the US and Europe contributed positively throughout the month.
• The only detractor was the US dollar's outperformance, which negatively impacted our currency allocation due to its stronger exposure to the euro.

• The main consequence of the current environment – marked by trade tensions and lingering uncertainty in the US – is the continued weakening of the US dollar.• This trend is amplified by a growing investor demand for diversification. In this context, we maintain a strong preference for the euro over the dollar.
• In equities, we retain exposure near the top end of our allocation range, supported by resilient US growth, solid corporate fundamentals, and improving sentiment in Europe and emerging markets.
• Technological innovation, relatively insulated from political uncertainty, continues to show strong momentum. It remains a core long-term investment theme, with opportunities across the entire value chain.
• Additionally, the recent decline in volatility has enabled us to strengthen our protection strategies, notably through put options on the VIX and US indices.
• On the fixed income front, we believe that markets are underestimating global growth prospects and overestimating the pace at which US inflation will return to target.
• At the same time, expansionary fiscal policies in several economies point to sustained upward pressure on long-term rates. We therefore maintain a slightly negative duration bias and favour inflation-linked securities.
• Finally, in credit, carry remains attractive, but current valuation levels warrant maintaining our hedging strategies.