Carmignac Portfolio Grandchildren: Letter from the Fund Managers - Q3 2026

During the third quarter of 2026, Carmignac Portfolio Grandchildren (A EUR Acc share class) posted a positive return of +1.70%, below its reference indicator, which rose +2.55%.

Global developed equity markets advanced during the third quarter of 2026, but the headline gain concealed unusually wide dispersion. US large-cap technology remained an important source of market support, with enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) increasingly focused on companies able to demonstrate tangible monetisation and sustained cloud and data-centre demand. At the same time, the rally was far from uniform: higher energy prices, rising bond yields and renewed inflation concerns placed pressure on many long-duration and consumer-sensitive businesses.

The macroeconomic backdrop became less benign as the quarter progressed. The conflict in the Middle East pushed energy prices sharply higher and revived inflation concerns. In September, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) raised policy rates by 25 basis points, while long-term sovereign yields moved higher across developed markets. Despite this tightening in financial conditions, economic activity remained relatively resilient, particularly in the United States, allowing investors to continue rewarding companies delivering strong earnings growth while penalising businesses where expectations or valuations appeared vulnerable.

Sector leadership therefore remained fragmented. Technology and selected Financials performed strongly, while Energy benefited materially from higher commodity prices. Healthcare outcomes were mixed but stock-specific opportunities were significant. Consumer Discretionary and several quality defensive franchises came under pressure as higher rates and changing market narratives weighed on valuations. For a concentrated global portfolio focused on sustainable, high-return businesses, the quarter was characterised less by a single macro factor than by substantial dispersion between individual companies.

Against this backdrop, the portfolio generated a positive absolute return but lagged its reference indicator. At the sector level, the largest positive absolute contributions came from Information Technology, Financials and Healthcare. The portfolio’s lower equity exposure and absence of Energy were headwinds to relative performance, while stock selection remained positive overall.

Information Technology was the largest absolute contributor. Microsoft was the strongest individual contributor to the Fund, rising almost 39% during the quarter as strong Azure performance and growing confidence in the monetisation of AI supported the shares. Nvidia also contributed close to one percentage point, gaining around 15% as demand for AI infrastructure remained robust. SAP and ServiceNow were additional positive contributors. We nevertheless maintained valuation discipline: Nvidia was trimmed after strength, while exposure to Arista was reduced and ultimately exited. Conversely, volatility in ASML and Broadcom created periods of weakness, with both detracting from performance despite our continued conviction in the long-term semiconductor and AI infrastructure opportunity.

Healthcare was another important positive contributor in absolute terms, although returns within the sector were highly dispersed. ThermoFisher was a standout performer, rising more than 35%, while Genmab and Regeneron also delivered strong gains. Genmab was actively managed during the period: we added on weakness and subsequently trimmed after a strong run. Against these gains, AstraZeneca, Galderma, Align Technology and EssilorLuxottica detracted. We used several of these setbacks to add selectively, including to AstraZeneca and EssilorLuxottica. The portfolio ended the quarter with Healthcare still its largest sector overweight.

Financials contributed positively, led by Intercontinental Exchange and Mastercard. ICE rose more than 24% and was one of the Fund’s largest contributors, while Mastercard gained around 8%. The portfolio also benefited from Adyen. These holdings are deliberately different from traditional balance-sheet-intensive banks: they are predominantly high-return, asset-light financial infrastructure and payments franchises that fit our quality and sustainability criteria.

Industrials produced mixed absolute performance but positive stock selection relative to the benchmark. Kingspan rose more than 28%, supported by strong operating momentum and an accretive transaction that strengthens its position in data centres. RELX also contributed positively. These gains were partly offset by DSV, the largest individual detractor, which fell around 24%, as well as Equifax and Prysmian. We added to DSV during weakness and continued to manage Prysmian actively. The quarter again highlighted the breadth of structural growth represented within Industrials, from energy-efficient buildings and electrification to data and information services.

Consumer Discretionary was the principal weak area. Hermès and Home Depot both fell materially and together detracted almost 0.9 percentage points from performance, while InterContinental Hotels also declined. Consumer Staples were also soft, with Colgate-Palmolive the main detractor. Elsewhere, the portfolio’s lack of Energy exposure cost roughly half a percentage point of relative performance as the sector rallied sharply. Communication Services also detracted, with Alphabet falling modestly while the broader sector rose. Portfolio activity throughout the quarter remained disciplined: we recycled capital from recent winners into companies where valuation support had improved, while keeping overall equity exposure below the benchmark for much of the period.

Looking ahead, we expect global developed equity markets to remain shaped by the tension between resilient corporate earnings and a more challenging inflation and interest-rate environment. The September rate increases by both the Fed and ECB underline that monetary policy cannot yet provide an uncomplicated tailwind to equity valuations. Higher energy prices and elevated long-term yields may continue to create volatility, particularly for highly valued or economically sensitive companies.

At the same time, the dispersion within markets continues to create attractive opportunities for fundamental stock pickers. AI remains a powerful long-term investment theme, but we believe the market is increasingly distinguishing between companies with credible earnings and cash-flow benefits and those supported primarily by narrative. Our exposure therefore remains focused on high-quality platforms and infrastructure beneficiaries such as Nvidia and Microsoft, while position sizes are actively managed as valuations and expectations evolve.

Healthcare remains a significant area of conviction. The sector contains a wide range of durable growth franchises across pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical technology and life-science tools, and recent volatility has allowed us to add selectively to businesses where we believe long-term earnings power is underappreciated. We also continue to find attractive opportunities in industrial companies benefiting from electrification, energy efficiency, automation and data-centre investment, as well as asset-light financial infrastructure businesses.