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Carmignac Absolute Return Europe: Letter from the Fund Managers - Q1 2026
Dear investors,
Over the first quarter of 2026, Carmignac Absolute Return Europe (A EUR Acc share class) realized a negative performance of -1.72%.
Market environment
The first quarter of 2026 was characterised by elevated volatility and pronounced sector rotations, driven primarily by macroeconomic developments and top-down thematic shifts.
European equities began the year on a strong footing, extending the momentum from the fourth quarter, supported by resilient economic data and continued diversification flows from global investors. Markets initially looked through geopolitical tensions, maintaining a constructive tone through the early part of the quarter.
However, sentiment deteriorated sharply in March as tensions between the US/Israel and Iran escalated, culminating in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This marked a turning point in market dynamics, ending an eight-month period of positive returns in Europe. Oil prices surged, recording their largest one-day increase since 2022, triggering a broad repricing of risk assets. Rising inflation expectations pushed bond yields higher and led to a temporary shift in market expectations from rate cuts to potential rate hikes. At the same time, higher energy prices weighed on growth expectations, acting as a negative shock to consumers, corporate margins and industrial activity. As a result, European equities sold off sharply, with the Euro Stoxx declining by 8% in March and leaving the market down 1.53% for the quarter.
Sector dynamics were a key feature throughout the period. January saw an acceleration in the sell-off of perceived “AI losers,” including software, IT services and data-driven business models. This trend persisted as investors reassessed terminal valuations in light of new AI developments from players such as Anthropic and OpenAI, which are viewed as potentially disruptive. In contrast, sectors perceived as beneficiaries, or relatively insulated from AI disruption, outperformed.
Within Europe, Energy was the standout performer, delivering strong returns, supported by rising oil prices. Other outperforming sectors included Telecoms, Utilities, Basic Resources and Chemicals. Conversely, more economically sensitive areas such as Media, Consumer Products, Autos, Travel and Retail underperformed. Precious metals also experienced significant volatility, with strong gains early in the quarter followed by a reversal.
Overall, while index-level performance remained relatively contained, underlying dispersion was significant, creating a more complex and opportunity-rich environment for active management.
Performance review
After a strong start to the year, market conditions became more challenging as risk premia increased and volatility picked up. In response, we proactively reduced exposure in line with our disciplined risk management framework to preserve capital. Gross exposure was reduced from the mid-120% range to as low as 88%, while net exposure was lowered from the mid-teens to approximately flat. We tactically reduced exposure to Technology, Financials and Industrials, where we anticipated greater vulnerability to profit-taking and a repricing of growth expectations.
Despite positive contributions from short positions, as well as from futures and options hedging, the Fund delivered a negative return for the quarter.
At the sector level, positive contributions came from Technology, Industrials, Communications and Utilities. The main detractors were Financials and Consumer Discretionary, while Healthcare also weighed on performance despite its typically defensive characteristics.
On a stock level, the main contributors were:
| Long position in Siemens Energy | Earnings and order book materially ahead of expectations |
| Long position in ASM International | Benefitted from increased capex linked to AI applications |
| Long position in Vestas | Stronger-than-expected turbine orders |
| Long position in Samsung | Strong memory volumes and supplier to Nvidia |
On a stock level, the main detractors were:
| Long position in Prosus | Uncertainty regarding the scale of investment plans |
| Long position in Fresenius | Profit-taking following prior strength |
| Long position in Banca Monte dei Paschi | Leadership disruption following CEO replacement |
| Long position in Noba Bank | Concerns around consumer finance exposure |
| Long position in Deutsche Post | Underperformed despite a more constructive broker backdrop |
Outlook
Markets are likely to remain range-bound in the near term and highly sensitive to developments in the Gulf. Investors are currently balancing still-resilient economic activity against rising risks to growth and renewed inflationary pressures, resulting in a more cautious and reactive market environment.
The upcoming Q1 earnings season will be a key catalyst, with outcomes expected to diverge significantly across sectors and companies. Management teams are also likely to adopt a more cautious tone on forward guidance given the current geopolitical backdrop.
While a potential de-escalation could provide upside, overall visibility remains limited. In this context, we maintain a cautious yet opportunistic stance.
Our positioning continues to favour medium-term beneficiaries of the current environment, including Construction, Industrials, Banks, Renewables and Electrification, as well as selective exposure to Defence within ESG constraints, while remaining underweight Consumer sectors.
Carmignac Absolute Return Europe A EUR Acc
- Aanbevolen minimale beleggingstermijn
- 3 jaar
- SFDR-fondscategorieën**
- Artikel 8
- Risicoschaal*

*Risicocategorie van het KID (essentiële-informatiedocument) indicator. Risicocategorie 1 betekent niet dat een belegging risicoloos is. Deze indicator kan in de loop van de tijd veranderen. **De Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) 2019/2088. De SFDR-classificatie van de fondsen kan in de loop van de tijd veranderen.
Voornaamste risico's van het Fonds
Kosten
- Instapkosten
- 4,00% van het bedrag dat u betaalt wanneer u in deze belegging instapt. Dit is het hoogste bedrag dat u in rekening zal worden gebracht. Carmignac Gestion brengt geen instapkosten in rekening. De persoon die verantwoordelijk is voor de verkoop van het product zal u informeren over de feitelijke kosten.
- Uitstapkosten
- Wij brengen voor dit product geen uitstapkosten in rekening.
- Beheerskosten en andere administratie - of exploitatiekos ten
- 2,15% van de waarde van uw belegging per jaar. Dit is een schatting op basis van de feitelijke kosten over het afgelopen jaar.
- Prestatievergoedingen
- 20,00% max. van de meerprestatie als het rendement positief is en de netto-inventariswaarde de high-water mark overschrijdt. Het feitelijke bedrag zal variëren naargelang van de prestaties van uw belegging. De schatting van de totale kosten hierboven omvat het gemiddelde over de afgelopen vijf jaar, of sinds de introductie van het product als dat minder dan vijf jaar geleden is.
- Transactiekosten
- 1,05% van de waarde van uw belegging per jaar. Dit is een schatting van de kosten die ontstaan wanneer we de onderliggende beleggingen voor het product kopen en verkopen. Het feitelijke bedrag zal variëren naargelang hoeveel we kopen en verkopen.
Rendement
| Carmignac Absolute Return Europe | −1,7 | −0,6 | +3,6 | +0,0 | −6,4 | +12,6 | +5,2 | −1,3 | +4,4 | +14,6 |
| Carmignac Absolute Return Europe | +1,4% | +1,1% | +3,6% |
Bron: Carmignac op 31 mrt. 2026.
In het verleden behaalde resultaten zijn geen garantie voor de toekomst. De resultaten zijn netto na aftrek van kosten (inclusief mogelijke in rekening gebrachte instapkosten door de distributeur) . Het fonds houdt een risico op kapitaalverlies in.
Het rendement kan stijgen of dalen als gevolg van valutaschommelingen voor de aandelen die niet valutadekkend zijn.
Referentie-indicator: -
