Carmignac P. Flexible Bond: Letter from the Fund Managers
In the first quarter of 2024, Carmignac Portfolio Flexible Bond posted a positive performance of +2.09% for the A shareclass, well ahead from its benchmark1(-0.36% for the ICE BofA ML Euro Broad index (EUR)).
The bond markets today
The year-end euphoria over sovereign rates was short-lived. In the first few weeks of January, the resilience of economic activity, especially in the United States where growth continues to outpace potential, the surge in risky assets driven by the acceleration of the artificial intelligence theme, and record bond issuance to finance public deficits that are only gradually being normalised, brought global rates back to levels close to those recorded on average for 2023. But it was above all the hopes of disinflation, raised by the strong progress made in the second half of 2023, that were clearly dashed by the upward surprises in consumer price indices in January and February in the United States, and to a lesser extent in Europe. Against this disinflationary backdrop, the markets, which were anticipating more than six rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in 2024, are now incorporating only 2.5 and 3.5 cuts respectively. The German 2-year rate jumped from 2.40% to 2.85% over the quarter, and the German 10-year rate from 2.02% to 2.30%. Similarly, the US 10-year yield rose from 3.88% to 4.20%. Against this backdrop, there were no major surprises at central bank meetings in the first quarter, with the exception of the Bank of Japan, which put an end to its negative interest rate policy by raising its key rate from -0.1% to a range of 0%-0.1%, at a time when inflation seems to be returning after 3 decades and the currency is in sharp decline. On the other hand, the context was favourable for risky assets thanks to the resilience of economic activity in the United States and Europe. Moreover, market volatility has fallen sharply, particularly on interest rates, thanks to central banks explicitly indicating that they are at the peak of their monetary tightening. As a result, high-yield credit spreads in Europe are now below 3%, a new low since the invasion of Ukraine, after having tightened against German bonds by more than 25 basis points over the quarter.
Asset allocation
In this unfavourable environment for the fixed-income markets, our strategy significantly outperformed its benchmark by relying on the positive contribution of our carry and inflation strategies, while mitigating the negative contribution of the fixed-income engine thanks to our active duration management. Our allocation to credit sub-segments such as structured credit, financial subordinated debt and high-yield credit worked well in an environment of credit margin compression. Nevertheless, we have continued to strengthen our protection on credit indices in an environment of low volatility and expensive valuation. In addition, we increased our exposure to breakeven inflation in the US and Europe, in line with the robust growth figures. Finally, after having been a key performance driver in the last quarter of 2023, we continued to trim our exposure to core rates, moving from a sensitivity of 2.6 in December to 1.4 at the end of the period. This came mainly from the portfolio's corporate bonds and inflation-linked bonds, tempering the impact of rising rates on the portfolio.
Outlook
The resilience of the main developed economies is paradoxically good news, but it is also a source of fragility for the markets, as this robustness is based purely on the new paradigm of government budget deficits. This fiscal stimulus is generating distortions that are beginning to weigh on fixed-income assets, as these fiscal policies contradict the monetary policies pursued by the main central banks. This prospect of the economy not landing also makes the scenario of a return to the inflation target illusory, as the robustness of the economic data continues to surprise investors on the upside. In addition, the recent surge in commodity prices, which were previously the main contributors to disinflation, are now expected to weigh on future producer and consumer price releases. These economic prospects argue in favour of maintaining a low interest-rate sensitivity within the portfolio, with a preference for the short end of the yield curves. We are maintaining a negative sensitivity to long maturities, where over-supply is likely to come up against weaker demand at a time when the main central banks are reducing the size of their balance sheets, as well as a short position on Japanese sovereign yields as the Bank of Japan began its rate hike cycle in March. On the credit front, we are maintaining a high gross exposure to sub-segments with high carry, such as financial subordinated debt and structured credit, while reducing our net exposure through cheap protection to prevent against exogenous shocks. Finally, we are maintaining a high exposure to inflation-indexed strategies, which should benefit from the upward recalibration of inflation expectations and which also provide an attractive hedge against a possible rise in geopolitical risk.
Carmignac Portfolio Flexible Bond
Carmignac Portfolio Flexible Bond A EUR Acc
- Empfohlene Mindestanlagedauer
- 3 Jahre
- Risikoskala*
- 2/7
- SFDR-Klassifizierung**
- Artikel 8
*Die Definition der Risikoskala finden Sie im KID/BIB (Basisinformationsblatt). Das Risiko 1 ist nicht eine risikolose Investition. Dieser Indikator kann sich im Laufe der Zeit verändern. **Die Offenlegungsverordnung (Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation - SFDR) 2019/2088. Die SFDR-Klassifizierung der Fonds kann sich im Laufe der Zeit ändern.
Hauptrisiken des Fonds
Kosten
- Einstiegskosten
- 1.00% des Betrags, den Sie beim Einstieg in diese Anlage zahlen. Dies ist der Höchstbetrag, der Ihnen berechnet wird. Carmignac Gestion erhebt keine Eintrittsgebühr. Die Person, die Ihnen das Produkt verkauft, teilt Ihnen die tatsächliche Gebühr mit.
- Ausstiegskosten
- Wir berechnen keine Ausstiegsgebühr für dieses Produkt.
- Verwaltungsgebühren und sonstige Verwaltungs- oder Betriebskosten
- 1.23% des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung auf der Grundlage der tatsächlichen Kosten des letzten Jahres.
- Erfolgsgebühren
- 20.00% wenn die Anteilsklasse während des Performancezeitraums den Referenzindikator übertrifft. Sie ist auch dann zahlbar, wenn die Anteilsklasse den Referenzindikator übertroffen, aber eine negative Performance verzeichnet hat. Minderleistung wird für 5 Jahre zurückgefordert. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie gut sich Ihre Investition entwickelt. Die obige aggregierte Kostenschätzung enthält den Durchschnitt der letzten 5 Jahre oder seit der Produkterstellung, wenn es weniger als 5 Jahre sind.
- Transaktionskosten
- 0.20% des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung der Kosten, die anfallen, wenn wir die Basiswerte für das Produkt kaufen oder verkaufen. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie viel wir kaufen und verkaufen.
Performance
| Carmignac Portfolio Flexible Bond | +3.3 | +4.3 | +5.4 | +4.7 | −8.0 | +0.0 | +9.2 | +5.0 | −3.4 | +1.7 |
| Referenzindikator | −1.6 | +1.3 | +2.6 | +6.8 | −16.9 | −2.8 | +4.0 | −2.5 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| Carmignac Portfolio Flexible Bond | +6.3% | +1.8% | +2.2% |
| Referenzindikator | +2.8% | −1.9% | −1.2% |
Quelle: Carmignac Stand 30. Okt 2026.
Wertentwicklungen der Vergangenheit lassen keine Rückschlüsse auf zukünftige Wertverläufe zu. Wertentwicklung nach Gebühren (keine Berücksichtigung von Ausgabeaufschlägen die durch die Vertriebsstelle erhoben werden können) Der Fonds ist mit einem Kapitalverlustrisiko verbunden.
Bei den nicht währungsgesicherten Anteilen kann die Rendite aufgrund von Währungsschwankungen steigen oder fallen.
Referenzindikator: ICE BofA Euro Broad Market index