Carmignac Portfolio Patrimoine Europe: Letter from the Fund Managers
To begin the year, Carmignac Portfolio Patrimoine Europe achieved a positive quarterly performance of +4.06% (A EUR share), surpassing its reference indicator (+3.03%).
European markets review
Resilient economic data has brought a sense of optimism to investors as they embrace the arrival of spring in the first quarter of 2024. European markets have experienced steady growth during this period, building on the positive momentum from the end of 2023. This growth has been driven by the anticipation of interest rate cuts by central banks on both sides of the Atlantic.
What is particularly encouraging is that this momentum has continued even as it became evident that expectations for rate cuts were too high. This is due to the strength of the US economy and a slower decline in inflation. Investors have rightly recognized that despite these challenges, the overall trend is towards declining rates, with inflation now less than half of what it was a year ago. Additionally, there have been promising signs of improvement in economic indicators such as the PMI manufacturing data and sentiment indicators. Initially, the market was led by sectors and stocks related to secular themes like artificial intelligence and obesity. However, in March, there was a broadening of performance to include strong showings from cyclical areas such as banks and autos.
In bond markets, interest rates have risen, with European sovereign bonds outperforming their US counterparts. This difference can be attributed to less favorable macroeconomic data in Europe, which has also led to a depreciation of the euro against the dollar. Similarly, credit markets have benefited from supportive macroeconomic conditions throughout the quarter, mirroring the positive trends seen in equities.
How did we fare in this context?
In the last quarter, the fund achieved a positive performance, outperforming its reference indicator.
During the first two months, the fund experienced significant gains from its strategic selection of high-quality businesses, particularly in sectors such as artificial intelligence and obesity. Notably, Novo Nordisk and ASML, two long-term convictions, saw impressive growth of over 25% and were the main contributors to the fund's success in equities. Recognizing the recent performance and the need for increased diversification, we made the decision in late February to take profits on some of our long-term positions and diversify our equity exposure through futures and options. This strategic move has proven to be beneficial.
In the face of a manufacturing bottoming globally, new opportunities for diversification have emerged. To capitalize on this, we maintained a high equity exposure while diversifying our performance drivers with more cyclical indexes such as Euro Stoxx Banks, Stoxx 600 Auto, and Footsie. Additionally, we added exposure to key commodities like Gold, Silver, and Copper, which further supported the fund's overall performance. These commodities are expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of the manufacturing industry and the tight supply/demand dynamics in certain markets.
Regarding bonds, the volatility in sovereign interest rates led us to adopt a cautious approach with a modified low duration throughout the quarter. Our investment in the corporate bond market performed well, benefiting from a significant carry and narrower credit spreads. All credit segments, including CLOs, contributed positively to the overall performance of the fund.
Outlook
The European economy continues to be sluggish, although there is a gradual recovery underway. This recovery can be attributed to a slight improvement in manufacturing and an increase in real incomes, which is a result of higher wages and lower inflation. However, the past two years of economic stagnation have negatively impacted cyclical inflation in the eurozone. In contrast, we anticipate that the US economy will remain resilient. Regarding central banks, markets are expecting a global easing cycle, although it is likely that the European Central Bank will pivot before the Federal Reserve, possibly in the early summer of 2024.
This environment should continue to offer a favourable cocktail for riskier assets, although we remain cautious about their valuation. Our analysis suggests that we are witnessing the early stages of a bubble in risky assets. The first phase sees prices steadily rising with low volatility. In the second phase, markets continue to climb, but volatility starts to increase, and we believe we are now entering this phase. The third and final phase is when the bubble eventually bursts. To mitigate the risk associated with this potential bubble, we have increased downside protections in both credit and equities through options and futures, with a particular focus on VIX. We are also diversifying our equity mix exposure as mentioned above via more cyclical sectors and commodities. In terms of our investment in the credit markets, the performance potential remains interesting through carry. We have also chosen to maintain a low modified duration on sovereign interest rates. While central banks have indicated their intention to pivot, we are exercising caution due to the strong resilience of growth and inflation data in the US. To hedge against the risk of a resurgence in inflation, we also have long breakevens both in Europe and the US.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor).
Carmignac Portfolio Patrimoine Europe A EUR Acc
- Empfohlene Mindestanlagedauer
- 3 Jahre
- Risikoskala*
- 3/7
- SFDR-Klassifizierung**
- Artikel 8
*Die Definition der Risikoskala finden Sie im KID/BIB (Basisinformationsblatt). Das Risiko 1 ist nicht eine risikolose Investition. Dieser Indikator kann sich im Laufe der Zeit verändern. **Die Offenlegungsverordnung (Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation - SFDR) 2019/2088. Die SFDR-Klassifizierung der Fonds kann sich im Laufe der Zeit ändern.
Hauptrisiken des Fonds
Kosten
- Einstiegskosten
- 4.00% des Betrags, den Sie beim Einstieg in diese Anlage zahlen. Dies ist der Höchstbetrag, der Ihnen berechnet wird. Carmignac Gestion erhebt keine Eintrittsgebühr. Die Person, die Ihnen das Produkt verkauft, teilt Ihnen die tatsächliche Gebühr mit.
- Ausstiegskosten
- Wir berechnen keine Ausstiegsgebühr für dieses Produkt.
- Verwaltungsgebühren und sonstige Verwaltungs- oder Betriebskosten
- 1.80% des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung auf der Grundlage der tatsächlichen Kosten des letzten Jahres.
- Erfolgsgebühren
- 20.00% wenn die Anteilsklasse während des Performancezeitraums den Referenzindikator übertrifft. Sie ist auch dann zahlbar, wenn die Anteilsklasse den Referenzindikator übertroffen, aber eine negative Performance verzeichnet hat. Minderleistung wird für 5 Jahre zurückgefordert. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie gut sich Ihre Investition entwickelt. Die obige aggregierte Kostenschätzung enthält den Durchschnitt der letzten 5 Jahre oder seit der Produkterstellung, wenn es weniger als 5 Jahre sind.
- Transaktionskosten
- 0.46% des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung der Kosten, die anfallen, wenn wir die Basiswerte für das Produkt kaufen oder verkaufen. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie viel wir kaufen und verkaufen.
Performance
| Carmignac Portfolio Patrimoine Europe | +3.8 | +4.9 | +7.3 | +2.1 | −12.7 | +9.5 | +13.9 | +18.7 | −4.8 |
| Referenzindikator | +4.3 | +8.3 | +5.1 | +9.5 | −11.0 | +10.2 | +2.4 | +16.4 | −4.8 |
| Carmignac Portfolio Patrimoine Europe | +6.9% | +0.9% | +4.4% |
| Referenzindikator | +8.2% | +3.3% | +4.3% |
Quelle: Carmignac Stand 30. Okt 2026.
Datum des ersten NAV : 29/12/2017.
Wertentwicklungen der Vergangenheit lassen keine Rückschlüsse auf zukünftige Wertverläufe zu. Wertentwicklung nach Gebühren (keine Berücksichtigung von Ausgabeaufschlägen die durch die Vertriebsstelle erhoben werden können) Der Fonds ist mit einem Kapitalverlustrisiko verbunden.
Bei den nicht währungsgesicherten Anteilen kann die Rendite aufgrund von Währungsschwankungen steigen oder fallen.
Referenzindikator: 40% MSCI Europe NR index + 40% ICE BofA All Maturity All Euro Government index + 20% €STR Capitalized Index. Häufigkeit der Neugewichtung: Quartalsweise