Carmignac P. Credit: Letter from the Fund Managers - Q4 2025
Carmignac Portfolio Credit was up 0.58% vs. 0.32% for the reference indicator during the fourth quarter (EUR Class A share). The fund is up 6.67% for the year at the end of December vs. 3.56% for the reference indicator, for an outperformance of 3.11% (EUR Class A share).
Review of Q4 2025 performance
We are very satisfied to have achieved a meaningful outperformance in an environment where this was not an easy task. Indeed, the credit world was firmly in “end of cycle” mode during 2025, characterized by expensive market levels and an increasing number of accidents. To outperform, one needed to select strong risk rewards with good convexity while controlling the cost of risk by avoiding being caught in troublesome situations. Interestingly, the highest beta portion of the European corporate credit market, i.e. Bonds rated CCC performed very poorly in the last quarter of the year, resulting in a negative total return for 2025. This is an illustration of an environment where alpha generation is more decisive than beta exposure.
We achieved a satisfactory performance while keeping the fund very diversified and maintaining a prudent net exposure with a hedging position on high yield indices that ranged between 15% and 20% of the fund throughout the year. Our investments in financials as well as natural resources performed particularly well. We had also a large contribution from an investment in the restructuring of a French healthcare company. This investment was a detractor to the performance in 2024 but our investment thesis is now well playing out and we expect further upside going forward.
Outlook
As we enter 2026, we are optimistic for the performance prospects of the fund. Credit markets are still in end of cycle configuration, with market spreads close to their historical lows while the number of defaults and liability management exercises is picking up. This clearly mandates a prudent positioning. Indeed, at the time of writing we have a 8.8% cash buffer and 15.1% hedging position through CDS on the European high yield index. The fund remains very diversified with more than 250 positions from 150 issuers. This stance will allow us to take advantage of the dislocation that will inevitably come when the cycle turns. Similar positionings helped us outperform meaningfully in previous bear markets such as 2018 or 2020 and we are ready to take advantage of volatility in the future.
In the meanwhile, the market retains a high level of “dispersion”, meaning that we frequently come across misunderstood opportunities which present strong rewards given their limited fundamental risk. For example, in the last two months of 2025, we had opportunities to deploy capital in size at high single digit return with what we believe are low fundamental risks in a number of situations such as, for example, the refinancing of an airport concession in central America, the refinancing of the balance sheet of an asset rich French healthcare firm, or the refinancing of a harsh environment drilling rig owner in Norway. Thanks to our uniquely wide mandate and our robust analytical skillset we are managing to identify enough of these to build a diversified portfolio which currently sports a strong carry of 5.64% and an average BBB- rating. If markets stay in the same regime for 2026, we expect to be able to deliver a mid-single digit return, thanks to the added benefit of convexity. And if and when the cycle turns, as discussed above, we are positioned to take advantage of it and, as we did in previous such circumstances, will look to deliver high single digit to low double-digit returns.
We are particularly excited about the opportunities that we expect to arise from the upcoming default cycle, both in corporate bonds and CLO tranches. Indeed, the restriking of the cost of capital post 2022 has put under pressure a lot of the zombie companies of the 2010s – bad businesses with high leverage surviving thanks to low to negative interest rates. Some have defaulted but many opted instead to enter into liability management exercises where short-term fixes allow all parties to preserve optionality. More often than not, these exercises do not fix the underlying business model or balance sheet issues and the subsequent defaults tend to be even harsher as a result, which should provide us with high alpha opportunities in the next 12 to 24 months.
In conclusion, in spite of the rather expensive valuations of credit markets, we remain optimistic about the potential to generate alpha through carry and attractive idiosyncratic investments, while keeping a prudent positioning in order to be able to take advantage of potential market dislocations.
Carmignac Portfolio Credit
Carmignac Portfolio Credit A EUR Acc
- Empfohlene Mindestanlagedauer
- 3 Jahre
- Risikoskala*
- 2/7
- SFDR-Klassifizierung**
- Artikel 6
*Die Definition der Risikoskala finden Sie im KID/BIB (Basisinformationsblatt). Das Risiko 1 ist nicht eine risikolose Investition. Dieser Indikator kann sich im Laufe der Zeit verändern. **Die Offenlegungsverordnung (Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation - SFDR) 2019/2088. Die SFDR-Klassifizierung der Fonds kann sich im Laufe der Zeit ändern.
Hauptrisiken des Fonds
Kosten
- Einstiegskosten
- 2,00 % des Betrags, den Sie beim Einstieg in diese Anlage zahlen. Dies ist der Höchstbetrag, der Ihnen berechnet wird. Carmignac Gestion erhebt keine Eintrittsgebühr. Die Person, die Ihnen das Produkt verkauft, teilt Ihnen die tatsächliche Gebühr mit.
- Ausstiegskosten
- Wir berechnen keine Ausstiegsgebühr für dieses Produkt.
- Verwaltungsgebühren und sonstige Verwaltungs- oder Betriebskosten
- 1,20 % des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung auf der Grundlage der tatsächlichen Kosten des letzten Jahres.
- Erfolgsgebühren
- 20,00 % wenn die Anteilsklasse während des Performancezeitraums den Referenzindikator übertrifft. Sie ist auch dann zahlbar, wenn die Anteilsklasse den Referenzindikator übertroffen, aber eine negative Performance verzeichnet hat. Minderleistung wird für 5 Jahre zurückgefordert. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie gut sich Ihre Investition entwickelt. Die obige aggregierte Kostenschätzung enthält den Durchschnitt der letzten 5 Jahre oder seit der Produkterstellung, wenn es weniger als 5 Jahre sind.
- Transaktionskosten
- 0,23 % des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung der Kosten, die anfallen, wenn wir die Basiswerte für das Produkt kaufen oder verkaufen. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie viel wir kaufen und verkaufen.
Performance
| Carmignac Portfolio Credit | +6,7 | +8,2 | +10,6 | −13,0 | +3,0 | +10,4 | +20,9 | +1,7 | +1,8 |
| Referenzindikator | +3,6 | +5,7 | +9,0 | −13,3 | +0,1 | +2,8 | +7,5 | −1,7 | +1,1 |
| Carmignac Portfolio Credit | +8,5 % | +2,7 % | +5,6 % |
| Referenzindikator | +6,0 % | +0,7 % | +1,5 % |
Quelle: Carmignac Stand 31. Dez 2025.
Datum des ersten NAV : 31/07/2017.
Die Wertentwicklung der Vergangenheit ist keine Garantie für die zukünftige Wertentwicklung. Sie verstehen sich nach Abzug von Gebühren (außer eventuellen Ausgabeaufschlägen, die von der Vertriebsstelle erhoben werden).
Bei den nicht währungsgesicherten Anteilen kann die Rendite aufgrund von Währungsschwankungen steigen oder fallen (bei Aktien, die nicht gegen das Währungsrisiko abgesichert sind).
Referenzindikator: 75% ICE BofA Euro Corporate Index + 25% ICE BofA Euro High Yield index. Häufigkeit der Neugewichtung: Quartalsweise