Carmignac Patrimoine: Letter from the Fund Managers - Q3 2026

Carmignac Patrimoine (A EUR Acc) returned +3.12% in the third quarter of 2026, outperforming its reference indicator, which was flat at +0.10%.

The third quarter was marked by a growing disconnect between resilient economic activity and increasingly challenging rates environment. Global growth remained supported by robust corporate investment, particularly in artificial intelligence, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed energy prices sharply higher. Combined with persistent inflationary pressures, this resilience prompted central banks to maintain a restrictive stance, with both the Federal Reserve and the ECB raising interest rates over the quarter.

Fixed income markets came under significant pressure as rising inflation expectations, tighter monetary policy and concerns over fiscal sustainability drove sovereign yields higher. Long-term rates rose sharply across developed markets, while investors became increasingly selective towards sovereign issuers. In Europe, French government bonds were particularly affected by political uncertainty and deteriorating fiscal prospects, leading to a widening of spreads against Germany. Fed hawkish tone also supported the US dollar towards the end of the quarter.

Despite the challenging macro backdrop, global equities remained relatively resilient, but the headline performance masked increasingly divergent trends beneath the surface. US technology stocks and emerging-market semiconductor companies continued to lead, supported by strong AI-related investment and earnings momentum. Importantly, earnings growth in many of these companies outpaced share-price gains, allowing valuations to compress despite positive returns. Elsewhere, the picture was more challenging. European equities came under pressure as rising energy prices and higher yields weighed on valuations. At the same time, market leadership remained unusually unstable, rotating between high-growth technology, defensive and value-oriented stocks.

The Fund delivered a solid quarter, rising by more than 3%, in a difficult environment for multi asset funds given the rise of rates. Importantly, performance was well diversified across asset classes, with equities, bonds and forex all contributing positively.

Equity positioning was a key source of performance. A more selective approach to high-beta technology, combined with greater exposure to quality companies in healthcare and financials, helped the Fund navigate the sharp summer correction. Portfolio adjustments made ahead of the summer, including profit-taking in SK Hynix and increased exposure to quality technology companies and opportunities beyond hardware. Technology remained the main performance driver, led by Atlassian, Nvidia and Asia Vital Components, while defensive healthcare and financial holdings such as Cencora, McKesson and Intercontinental Exchange provided valuable diversification during periods of market volatility. As markets recovered, selected semiconductor and technology convictions also contributed strongly, allowing the portfolio to combine resilience during the sell-off with participation in the rebound.

The standout contributor was fixed income. In a quarter marked by a broad and severe sell-off in sovereign bond markets, the Fund did more than simply withstand the rise in yields: its flexible positioning allowed it to benefit from it. Increased exposure to inflation-linked bonds and inflation swaps contributed positively as inflation expectations repriced higher, while active duration management proved particularly effective. Short positions at the long end of both US and European yield curves generated gains as curves bear-steepened. Towards quarter-end, following the sharp repricing of ECB expectations, we also increased exposure to short-dated euro rates. This leaves the portfolio positioned to navigate two-sided risks: inflation remaining persistent, but also the possibility that tighter financial conditions eventually weigh on economic activity.

Currencies and commodities provided a further layer of diversification. Positions in the Japanese yen and Korean won contributed alongside exposure to commodity-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar. Gold and copper miners also added value over the quarter, with active management of these exposures allowing the Fund to capture part of their rebound in August.

The global economy continues to show resilience, but many of the forces supporting growth are also inflationary. Geopolitical and climate-related disruptions are putting upward pressure on commodity prices, while higher defence, infrastructure and climate-related spending are adding to demand. The AI investment cycle reinforces this dynamic: while it should generate significant productivity gains over time, the scale of investment required is already creating additional demand and bottlenecks across semiconductors, power infrastructure and industrial metals.

This combination of resilient nominal growth, persistent inflation and large fiscal deficits should keep long-term yields under pressure. Central banks therefore face an increasingly difficult trade-off between inflation and growth, while bond markets are becoming less tolerant of fiscal imbalances. Europe illustrates this well: resilient activity and the ECB’s focus on price stability remain supportive, but fiscal and political risks are driving greater differentiation across sovereign markets. We see the widening in French spreads primarily as a repricing of fiscal fundamentals rather than the beginning of a broader European sovereign crisis.

Against this backdrop, we remain constructive on equities as resilient nominal growth continues to support corporate earnings. We retain strong conviction in the structural AI theme, particularly semiconductors, but are increasingly diversifying our sources of growth. We have selectively reduced some technology exposure in favour of opportunities across consumer-related sectors, financials and healthcare. We also added volatility hedges, taking advantage of low headline volatility at a time when dispersion across individual stocks remains elevated.

In fixed income, higher yields are creating more attractive entry points. We currently favour the front end of the European curve, where markets appear overly pessimistic on the extent of future ECB tightening, while remaining cautious on longer-dated bonds given persistent inflation risks, large fiscal deficits and rebuilding term premia. We continue to see value in inflation-linked bonds, particularly Italian linkers at intermediate maturities, where real yields remain attractive. In the US, we maintain our short duration given the potential deficit increase post mid terms. We also maintain a defensive stance on credit, with limited exposure to the most speculative segments, while retaining the flexibility to redeploy capital if spreads widen.

Finally, currencies remain an important source of diversification. We maintain a structural underweight to the US dollar: renewed European uncertainty may support its safe-haven role in the short term, but does not alter our more cautious long-term view. We also maintain a long position in the Japanese yen for its defensive characteristics, alongside selective exposure to emerging-market currencies, including the Brazilian real.