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Carmignac Portfolio Absolute Return Europe

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Comments from the Investment Team

Read the Investment team's analysis below.

Carmignac Portfolio Absolute Return Europe Monthly comments

Data as of:  31 Mar 2026.
The Investment team

Johan FREDRIKSSON

Fund Manager

Dean SMITH

Fund Manager

Market Environment

  • European equities entered March from a position of strength, with the Euro Stoxx 600 reaching a record high in February.
  • However, an escalation in US/Israel–Iran tensions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, abruptly ended Europe’s eight month run of positive returns.
  • Oil prices surged, recording their largest one day move since 2022, triggering a broad repricing of risk assets.
  • Rising inflation expectations pushed bond yields higher and briefly shifted market pricing from expected rate cuts to potential rate hikes. Growth expectations were revised down accordingly.
  • Sector breadth was the weakest since 2022, with all sectors declining except Energy, which gained 15%.
  • Rate sensitive sectors such as real estate, industrials, and consumer cyclicals led the sell off, while traditionally defensive sectors offered little protection.

Performance Commentary

  • In a highly rotational risk off market, we tried to limit capital losses during the market drawdown but were constrained by the lack of exposure to the Oil sector, which proved to be the most effective hedge during the period.
  • Despite positive returns from our stock short book and our futures and options hedging program, the fund was down during the month.
  • At the sector level the biggest detractors were Financials, Technology and Industrials due to profit taking in previous year to date winners.
  • Surprisingly, the healthcare sector, which is normally expected to trade defensively, was also among the biggest losers for the month.
  • Key stock selection winners included long positions in Vestas (after significant acceleration in orders for wind turbines) and our short positions in a UK retailer and French Bank.
  • Detractors included our long in Fresenius (despite no negative news and strong fundamentals), Schneider Electric (because of concerns about the impact of the conflict on GDP growth) and Indra (due to governance issues).

Outlook and Investment Strategy

  • Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove a more defensive stance during the month, with portfolio activity primarily focused on risk management.
  • Gross exposure was reduced from the low 120% range to below 90%, while net exposure was brought close to neutral. We trimmed cyclical exposure and took profits in Financials and Technology amid broad market de risking.
  • Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain range bound and headline driven, with Q1 earnings and geopolitical developments acting as key catalysts.
  • In this environment, we maintain a cautious but opportunistic approach, favouring Construction, Industrials, Banks, Renewables/Electrification and selectively Defence, while remaining underweight Consumers.

Performance scenarios

The figures shown include all the costs of the product itself, but may not include all the costs that you pay to your advisor or distributor. The figures do not take into account your personal tax situation, which may also affect how much you get back. What you will get from this product depends on future market performance. Market developments in the future are uncertain and cannot be accurately predicted. The unfavourable, moderate, and favourable scenarios shown are illustrations using the worst, average, and best performance of the product over the last 10 years. Markets could develop very differently in the future. This table shows the money you could get back over the next 3 years, under different scenarios, assuming that you invest 10 000 £.

Performance scenarios

Data as of:  Feb 2026.
Scenarios
If you exit after 1 year
If you exit after 3 years
Stress
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
6120 £
-38.80 %
6770 £
-12.18 %
Unfavourable
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
9080 £
-9.22 %
9670 £
-1.12 %
Moderate
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
10530 £
+5.30 %
11260 £
+4.03 %
Favourable
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
12280 £
+22.84 %
13450 £
+10.38 %
The unfavourable scenario occurred for an investment between 10/2021 and 10/2024.
The moderate scenario occurred for an investment between 02/2020 and 02/2023.
The favourable scenario occurred for an investment between 02/2016 and 02/2019.
Source: Carmignac at 28 Feb 2026.
Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice.
The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager.
Carmignac Portfolio is a sub-fund of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive.
The information presented above is not contractually binding and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor), where applicable. Investors may lose some or all of their capital, as the capital in the UCI is not guaranteed. Access to the products and services presented herein may be restricted for some individuals or countries. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The risks, fees and recommended investment period for the UCI presented are detailed in the KIDs (key information documents) and prospectuses available on this website. The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to purchase.). The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCITS or the manager.