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Carmignac Portfolio Absolute Return Europe

Share Class

LU2923680206

Comments from the Investment Team

Read the Investment team's analysis below.

Carmignac Portfolio Absolute Return Europe Monthly comments

Data as of:  30 Oct 2026.
The Investment team

Johan FREDRIKSSON

Fund Manager

Market Environment

  • European equities rebounded in October, with the STOXX 600 gaining around 1.9%, although beneath the surface market leadership became very fragile. As expected, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.75–4.00%, but two dissenters favouring a hike reinforced the higher-for-longer message.
  • Meanwhile, the real challenge, pain for investors during the month, was the very aggressive sector dispersion. The market had violent moves, if daily, every week Banks reversed sharply, falling more than 10% despite strong earnings, as investors took profits after a strong run.
  • Technology also lost momentum towards month-end as enthusiasm around AI gave way to concerns over elevated valuations, hyperscaler capex, fund raising for DC roll out and monetisation.
  • Healthcare and other defensives benefited from the rotation, while Energy remained supported by elevated oil prices.
  • Overall, October saw a clear shift away from crowded momentum trades towards earnings visibility, quality and defensives.
  • Nervousness increased into month-end ahead of the US midterms, with political uncertainty adding to existing concerns around AI spending and regulation.

Performance Commentary

  • The fund generated a negative return during the month.
  • In terms of portfolio contribution, four sectors stood out in October: Tech, Industrials and Financials detracted our performance, while we had positive contribution from Healthcare, Materials and Consumer Staples.
  • Worth noting that in consumer discretionary, we saw a short covering, thus the short leg of sector pretty much offset the longs.
  • The negative detracting sector was Materials, with Chemical shorts position contributed negatively as shares rallied with move up in oil.
  • Key stock selection winners included long positions in Fresenius (strong growth outlook), UCB (benefiting from a raised full year guidance) and Galderma (after strong results).
  • The main detractors were Siltronic, impacted by the AI sell-off and Nexans which suffered due to sector rotation.

Outlook and Investment Strategy

  • We enter November with a more cautious outlook as the unwind in AI and Technology may gather further momentum.
  • Concerns around stretched valuations in part, but more the risk around rising capex and the thus far lack of visibility of returns on AI investment are challenging one of the market’s most crowded trades.
  • The key question is whether this remains a concentrated Tech correction or develops into a broader de-risking event.
  • Geopolitical risk also remains elevated, particularly around Iran, with the potential for Trump to re-engage more aggressively now the midterms are behind him. Any renewed escalation would put further pressure on oil, inflation and yields at a time when the Fed remains constrained.
  • Against this backdrop, we expect volatility to remain elevated and favour selective quality, defensives and companies with strong free cash flow and earnings visibility.
  • The rotation away from US mega-cap Technology should also create opportunities in Europe and other overlooked areas of the market.

Performance scenarios

The figures shown include all the costs of the product itself, but may not include all the costs that you pay to your advisor or distributor. The figures do not take into account your personal tax situation, which may also affect how much you get back. What you will get from this product depends on future market performance. Market developments in the future are uncertain and cannot be accurately predicted. The unfavourable, moderate, and favourable scenarios shown are illustrations using the worst, average, and best performance of the product over the last 10 years. Markets could develop very differently in the future. This table shows the money you could get back over the next 3 years, under different scenarios, assuming that you invest 10 000 €.

Performance scenarios

Data as of:  Oct 2026.
Scenarios
If you exit after 1 year
If you exit after 3 years
Stress
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
€ 5 860
−41,36%
€ 6 500
−13,38%
Unfavourable
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
€ 8 650
−13,46%
€ 8 980
−3,54%
Moderate
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
€ 9 840
−1,56%
€ 10 410
+1,36%
Favourable
What you might get back after costs
Average return each year
€ 11 710
+17,11%
€ 11 900
+5,98%
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The unfavourable scenario occurred for an investment between 01/2025 and 10/2026.
The moderate scenario occurred for an investment between 06/2023 and 06/2026.
The favourable scenario occurred for an investment between 09/2019 and 09/2022.
Source: Carmignac at 31 Oct 2026.

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Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice.
The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager.
Carmignac Portfolio is a sub-fund of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive.
The information presented above is not contractually binding and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor), where applicable. Investors may lose some or all of their capital, as the capital in the UCI is not guaranteed. Access to the products and services presented herein may be restricted for some individuals or countries. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The risks, fees and recommended investment period for the UCI presented are detailed in the KIDs (key information documents) and prospectuses available on this website. The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to purchase.). The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCITS or the manager.