Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond

• April was marked by high volatility and renewed risk aversion on the bond and equity markets. The Trump administration's announcement of new tariffs reignited fears of a recession in the US and disruptions to global production chains.- Despite Donald Trump's backtracking on the main tariff measures (temporarily reduced to 10%, except for China), a crisis of confidence took hold among investors, who deserted US assets (the dollar and Treasury bonds).
• In the US, the yield curve steepened, with the 2-year rate falling by -28 basis points compared with -5 basis points for the 10-year rate, as the market now anticipates four rate cuts by the Federal Reserve between now and the end of the year.
• The picture was the same in the eurozone, where the German 2-year rate fell by -36 basis points compared with -29 basis points for the 10-year rate, completely erasing the previous month's correction linked to the announcement of investment plans in Germany.
• Risk aversion was high in April following the introduction of tariffs, which led to a +100 bp widening on the Itraxx Xover index at the beginning of the month, before tightening just as sharply after the Trump administration's reversal. As a result, the Itraxx Xover index recorded only a moderate widening of +22bp over the month.
• On the currency front, the euro continued to appreciate against the dollar, with the market anticipating a negative impact on US growth and currency repatriation following the announcement of higher-than-expected tariffs on “Liberation Day” at the beginning of the month.

-During the month, the fund posted a negative performance, but outperformed its benchmark.-Against a backdrop of widespread easing in interest rates, the portfolio benefited from its long positions in UK, German and Eastern European (Hungary, Poland) rates, as well as in Latin America (Brazil, Mexico). However, the fund was penalized by its short positions in Japanese and French rates.
-Our exposure to corporate credit had a negative impact, mainly due to the widening of credit spreads, which was partially offset by the protections we put in place to reduce our exposure to this market. Conversely, our selection of emerging market debt denominated in hard currencies had a positive impact due to specific situations (Argentina, Ecuador).
-Finally, on the currency front, the sharp rise in the euro had a negative impact on our exposure to the US dollar in absolute terms, but our cautious exposure throughout the month enabled us to significantly outperform the benchmark.

· Against a backdrop of negative growth impacts from tariffs, budgets allocated to European rearmament and geopolitical challenges, we expect the major central banks in developed and emerging countries to gradually continue their monetary easing. We are therefore maintaining a relatively high level of sensitivity to interest rates.· On rates, we favor real rates in the US, as economic data in a tariff environment points to a slowdown in the economy. In addition, we are also focusing on central banks that are behind in the cycle, such as the United Kingdom, but also on certain emerging countries, such as Brazil, which also benefits from high real rates and an allocation to certain Eastern European countries. We also have short positions on Japanese rates, where inflation is starting to take hold, but also in Europe, against a backdrop of high defense spending. · In credit, although this asset class offers an attractive carry, we are cautious due to relatively high valuations and are maintaining a significant level of hedging on the iTraxx Xover to protect the portfolio from the risk of widening spreads. · Finally, in currencies, we are maintaining relatively low exposure to the US dollar and limited exposure to emerging market currencies. Our currency selection includes Latin American currencies (BRL, CLP) and Eastern European currencies (HUF). Finally, we are maintaining a long position in the Japanese yen, which is likely to be the only central bank to raise rates this year.