Carmignac Investissement: Letter from the Fund Manager - Q1 2026

During the first quarter of 2026, Carmignac Investissement delivered a performance of -3.90%, underperforming its reference indicator, which posted a loss of -1.32%.³

Markets are closing out an undeniably volatile quarter. January was marked by a continuation of the 2025 euphoria, particularly in technology. In February, however, volatility began to build beneath the surface: while headline indices appeared relatively stable, sharp sell-offs emerged in certain parts of the market, with sentiment-driven dislocations affecting stocks perceived as “AI losers,” especially in the software space.

In March, investors were caught off guard by both the scale and duration of the ongoing Middle East conflict, triggering sharp moves across a range of assets. The conflict disrupted some of the market’s most crowded trades, reflecting not only a fundamental deterioration in risk sentiment but also the forced unwinding of leveraged positions. South Korea and gold were among the main casualties.

From a geographical standpoint, Emerging markets have outperformed US and European markets since the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, both EM and Europe lost momentum as geopolitical tensions and energy security concerns weighed on the regional outlook.

Rates also moved sharply higher across both US and European markets.

Overall, the quarter saw markets shift rapidly from a “Goldilocks” scenario to a far more uncertain regime, dominated by stagflation risks and the renewed importance of macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics.

The Fund underperformed its reference indicator in the first quarter of 2026. The main source of both absolute and relative weakness came from the healthcare sector. Doximity was negatively affected by the wave of AI-related disruption, as it came to be seen as a potential loser in that environment. Novo Nordisk was also a significant detractor, following a weaker-than-expected 2026 outlook, mounting pricing pressure in the US, and intensifying competition in GLP-1 obesity treatments, all of which led to a de-rating of the stock. We further reduced the size of the position during the period.

Our underweight in energy also weighed on relative performance. In financials, the sector detracted in absolute terms.

Among the largest absolute detractors were several software names, including Atlassian, Salesforce, Microsoft and ServiceNow. These positions had been built earlier in the year on the contrarian view that the disruption wave would remain limited for some of the well-established players. We reduced some of these positions during the relative rebound in March, as scepticism toward the segment may persist until markets gain better visibility on the true scale and timing of any disruption.

The main contributors over the period came from semiconductors, with holdings such as TSMC, SK Hynix and Lotes posting strong gains.

Looking ahead, uncertainty is likely to remain elevated, with market dispersion staying high as long as the conflict in the Middle East persists. The key variable will be its duration: a prolonged conflict would increase the likelihood of lasting damage, raising the risk that today’s disruptions evolve into more severe and potentially irreversible economic and market consequences. At this stage, markets appear to be pricing in an inflation shock, but not yet a meaningful growth shock.
In this environment, any sharp dislocations—whether triggered by geopolitical developments or abrupt swings in market sentiment—are likely to be viewed as opportunities to build positions at attractive valuations. In many cases, such episodes are driven more by short-term uncertainty than by any material deterioration in underlying fundamentals.

Our main performance drivers remain the following.
In technology, the recent correction has been significant. Tech stocks have fallen sharply, erasing most of the Nasdaq 100’s valuation premium relative to the broader market, as investors question the returns that will ultimately be generated by AI-related capital expenditure. While this pullback may be creating opportunities, the sector is no longer moving as a single block, making stock selection more important than broad-based exposure.
Within technology, semiconductors remain our biggest exposure, as demand and pricing power continue to provide support. That said, valuations already reflect much of this strength, which calls for a more selective approach. We have added some Japanese upstream actors to diversify our semi exposure (Nitto Boseki, Ibiden, Disco).
Among hyperscalers, uncertainty around the return on AI capex continues to fuel volatility. Against this backdrop, we have reduced our exposure to Microsoft in favor of Alphabet and Amazon. We believe Alphabet is relatively better positioned in the current environment, while Amazon should benefit from an acceleration in growth as capital expenditure progressively catches up with demand.
In software, skepticism toward the segment may persist until the market gains greater visibility on the scale and timing of any disruption linked to AI. In this context, we are maintaining selective exposure to the most resilient players, supported by historically attractive valuations, such as Salesforce.

In financials, we have reinforced exposure to companies perceived as potential casualties of AI, such as S&P Global and Tradeweb, which we believe could prove significantly more resilient than current valuations imply. We also added Berkshire Hathaway in January 2026 as a defensive holding, given its lower correlation to our tech-heavy portfolio and its more attractive prospective returns relative to cash. Berkshire remains a distinctive compounding vehicle, supported by disciplined capital allocation and a diversified base of high-quality businesses. In addition, the improving risk/reward profile in its insurance and railroad operations strengthens the case, while the transition from Warren Buffett to Greg Abel now appears far less of an overhang than previously feared.

Within industrials, our exposure remains centered on two core themes: electrification and aerospace. We used the March correction to reinforce or initiate positions in selected names on weakness, including Schneider Electric and Parker Hannifin.
Finally, in healthcare, we maintain exposure to a number of biotech companies that are self-funded, already commercialized, and supported by robust therapeutic pipelines. At the more defensive end of the spectrum, U.S. drug distributors remain our largest positions in the sector.