Carmignac P. Credit: Letter from the Fund Managers - Q2 2026
Carmignac Portfolio Credit was up +2.18% (A EUR Acc shareclass) during the second quarter of 2026 versus +2.67% for the reference indicator. The fund is up 1.15% year-to-date vs. +1.50% for the reference indicator for the same period.
Review of Q2 2026 performance
The -49bps underperformance versus the reference indicator during the second quarter more than entirely attributable to our hedging position via CDS on the Xover (EUR HY), which had a negative -98bps gross contribution over this period. A fair amount of this negative impact was due to the tightening of the Xover. Given the tight level where it is trading today, we expect a lesser impact in the second half of the year, which should be offset by the high carry of the fund (net of the cost of protection).
Taking some perspective, the fund is as conservatively positioned as it has ever been, with, on top of the hedging, a moderate gross 31.5% high yield exposure and more than 10% of the fund invested in very defensive high quality, short duration investment grade paper.
This positioning has a cost, as evidenced by second quarter performance, but we are entirely comfortable with our current defensive stance and we think it will offer us substantial opportunities to generate higher returns when the cycle turns, as it always inevitably does. Indeed, despite very tight average spread levels, we believe credit markets are now firmly in end of cycle mode. Defaults are rising in every corner of global credit, abundant liquidity notwithstanding, as the results of more than a decade of poor underwriting come home to roost. The recent stress created in global supply chains by the war in the Middle East has not been reflected in market spreads, despite lasting disruptions and the absence, for now, of a definitive resolution. The rapid progression in Large Language Models (LLMs) capabilities, especially in coding, is putting pressure on levered software businesses as well as, more generally, on low value-added services business models with weak barriers to entry and we expect it will create a wave of restructurings in the coming years. Private credit is witnessing an exodus of retail capital that is starting to force companies financed with private debt to refinance in the public space, which should put pressure on the “single B and lower rated” compartment of the high yield space. Finally, the CLO arbitrage feels broken at the moment, with senior tranche costs and loan returns leaving the junior part of new vintages CLOs capital structure in a fragile state.
The portfolio is built to withstand this buildup of multiple risks. Our credit selection is focused on asset rich business models that perform well in inflationary environments (energy and financials are our largest sectors). We have no exposure to software or businesses at risk from LLMs and we have drastically reduced our CLO exposure, with a focus on senior tranches of older vintages. We have of course zero exposure to private credit by construction and, as discussed above, we have a prudent positioning with 17.5% of hedges via the Xover, a moderate gross high yield exposure and a meaningful liquidity pocket. We keep the fund very diversified with more than 250 positions from more than 150 different issuers.
Although dispersion is trending down, we continue to find attractive risk rewards to build defensive carry and the fund is yielding at the moment 5.5% (c. 5.1% net of the cost of the hedging), for a BBB average rating. This carry should allow us to deliver a satisfactory return in the coming quarters even if present conditions persist. It should also protect us in the downside, in addition to our defensive portfolio construction, and allow us to capitalize on opportunities when the cycle turns.
Outlook
The late cycle regime is always the most painful one for value-minded investors. Patience and prudence are needed but they exact a temporary, albeit real, cost. We think credit selection and carry will help us mitigate part of that drag. More importantly, if there is one thing the portfolio managers take away from their study of history and their past two decades of investing, it is that, yes, credit markets can stay irrational for a long time, but the longer they do, the more attractive the opportunity set becomes when the cycle turns. 2005-2007 comes to mind of course but, without going that far back in time, 2016-2018 was also a difficult stretch for credit investors, with a lot of ebullience and tight spreads for years on end. The correction at the end of 2018 was, in retrospect, relatively short and mild, but it was enough for this fund to achieve its best year ever in 2019 with a high teens net return. Prudence had been a good investment then, and we expect it will be a good one going forward too.
1Reference indicator: 75% BofA Merrill Lynch Euro Corporate Index, 25% BofA Merrill Lynch Euro High Yield Index.
231/07/2017. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). Marketing communication. Please refer to the KID/prospectus of the fund before making any final investment decisions.
Carmignac Portfolio Credit
Carmignac Portfolio Credit A EUR Acc
- Duración mínima recomendada de la inversión
- 3 años
- Escala de riesgo*
- 2/7
- Clasificación SFDR**
- Artículo 6
*Escala de riesgo del KID (Documento de datos fundamentales). El riesgo 1 no implica una inversión sin riesgo. Este indicador podría evolucionar con el tiempo. **Reglamento SFDR (Reglamento sobre la divulgación de información relativa a la sostenibilidad en el sector de los servicios financieros, por sus siglas en inglés) 2019/2088. La clasificación SFDR de los Fondos puede evolucionar con el tiempo.
Principales riesgos del Fondo
Gastos
- Costes de entrada
- 2,00 % del importe que pagará usted al realizar esta inversión. Se trata de la cantidad máxima que se le cobrará. Carmignac Gestion no cobra costes de entrada. La persona que le venda el producto le comunicará cuánto se le cobrará realmente.
- Costes de salida
- No cobramos una comisión de salida por este producto.
- Comisiones de gestión y otros costes administrativos o de funcionamiento
- 1,20 % del valor de su inversión al año. Se trata de una estimación basada en los costes reales del último año.
- Comisiones de rendimiento
- 20,00 % cuando la clase de acciones supera el indicador de referencia durante el período de rendimiento. También se pagará en caso de que la clase de acciones haya superado el indicador de referencia pero haya tenido un rendimiento negativo. El bajo rendimiento se recupera durante 5 años. La cantidad real variará según el rendimiento de su inversión. La estimación de costos agregados anterior incluye el promedio de los últimos 5 años, o desde la creación del producto si es menos de 5 años.
- Costes de operación
- 0,23 % del valor de su inversión al año. Se trata de una estimación de los costes en que incurrimos al comprar y vender las inversiones subyacentes del producto. El importe real variará en función de la cantidad que compremos y vendamos.
Rentabilidades
| Carmignac Portfolio Credit | +1,2 | +6,7 | +8,2 | +10,6 | −13,0 | +3,0 | +10,4 | +20,9 | +1,7 | +1,8 |
| Indicador de referencia | +1,5 | +3,6 | +5,7 | +9,0 | −13,3 | +0,1 | +2,8 | +7,5 | −1,7 | +1,1 |
| Carmignac Portfolio Credit | +7,8 % | +2,4 % | +5,4 % |
| Indicador de referencia | +5,7 % | +0,9 % | +1,6 % |
Fuente: Carmignac a 30 de jun. de 2026.
Fecha del primer VL : 31/07/2017.
Las rentabilidades históricas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras. La rentabilidad es neta de comisiones (excluyendo las eventuales comisiones de entrada aplicadas por el distribuidor) El fondo no garantiza la preservación del capital.
La rentabilidad puede aumentar o disminuir como consecuencia de las fluctuaciones de las divisas, en el caso de las acciones que no estén cubiertas por divisas.
Indicador de referencia: 75% ICE BofA Euro Corporate Index + 25% ICE BofA Euro High Yield index. Frecuencia de rebalanceo: Trimestral