Carmignac Portfolio Grande Europe: Letter from the Fund Managers - Q3 2026

During the third quarter of 2026, Carmignac Portfolio Grande Europe (F EUR share class) posted a modest negative return of approximately -0.36%, ahead of its reference indicator, which declined by 1.00%.

European equity markets were volatile during the third quarter of 2026 and finished the period modestly lower as investors balanced a resilient corporate earnings season and improving activity data against renewed geopolitical risk, higher energy prices and a sharp rise in bond yields. The Middle East conflict remained the dominant macroeconomic variable for much of the quarter: Brent oil repeatedly moved higher as supply concerns intensified, feeding inflation expectations and putting upward pressure on long-dated rates. In September, the European Central Bank raised its key policy rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, while acknowledging that the euro-area economy had proved more resilient than expected.

Sector leadership reflected this unusual combination of resilient growth and renewed inflation pressure. Energy was by far the strongest area of the market, rising around 20% over the quarter, while Financials and Materials also delivered positive returns. By contrast, long-duration and rate-sensitive areas generally struggled: Healthcare, Technology and Consumer Staples declined, while Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate were among the weakest sectors. French fiscal concerns added another source of volatility, periodically widening sovereign spreads and weighing on French equities and banks.

Artificial intelligence remained an important source of dispersion. Semiconductor and infrastructure beneficiaries experienced sharp swings as investors alternated between enthusiasm over hyperscaler capital expenditure and concern over the sustainability of AI spending, export restrictions and the pace of capacity additions. At the same time, the market increasingly debated which software, financial-platform and information-services businesses could be disrupted by agentic AI. This created abrupt rotations between perceived AI winners and losers, often independently of near-term company fundamentals.

The portfolio outperformed its reference indicator during the quarter despite a modest negative absolute return. Stock selection was the principal driver of relative performance, particularly within Healthcare, Industrials and Information Technology. This was partly offset by sector allocation, most notably the absence of Energy exposure during a period in which the sector rose sharply. At the individual-stock level, Genmab and Kingspan were the largest positive contributors, while DSV, Hermès, EssilorLuxottica and AstraZeneca were the most significant detractors.

Healthcare was the strongest source of positive relative attribution, even though the sector itself remained out of favour. Genmab was the portfolio’s largest positive contributor, supported by growing confidence around a series of important clinical read-outs into year-end. Argenx also performed well following a best-case outcome from the ALKIVIA trial for Vyvgart in myositis. Sartorius Stedim and Demant also contributed. We used weakness across the sector to add selectively to several high-conviction names, including Genmab, Argenx and AstraZeneca.

Industrials also made a strong positive contribution through stock selection, although outcomes within the sector were highly dispersed. Kingspan was a standout performer following very strong results, with demand in data centres as well as general insulated panels in North America and Europe exceeding expectations; the company subsequently announced an accretive transaction that further strengthened its data-centre exposure. IMCD also contributed positively following a better-than-expected trading update, while RELX and Schneider Electric added to returns. DSV was the main detractor, and we used the weakness to modestly increase our position.

Within Technology, SAP was among the portfolio’s largest contributors, while Nemetschek and Bechtle also added positively. ASML, however, detracted as the semiconductor complex experienced repeated bouts of volatility driven by concerns around AI capacity, potential restrictions on sales to China and signs of progress in domestic Chinese lithography. We added to ASML during periods of weakness but subsequently trimmed the position into strength as sentiment recovered.

Financials generated positive absolute returns but were a modest detractor from relative performance overall. BBVA, Deutsche Börse and Euronext were notable positive contributors, supported by resilient earnings, capital-markets activity and, for selected banks, the higher-rate environment. Conversely, FlatexDEGIRO was a significant detractor amid concerns around strategic direction, competition and investment requirements, while Nordnet and Wise also weighed. As the quarter progressed, we became more cautious on banks after their strong run and reduced exposure across BBVA, Erste, National Bank of Greece, Finecobank and FlatexDEGIRO. We continued to favour higher-quality financial infrastructure businesses and added to Euronext.

Elsewhere, the portfolio’s lack of Energy exposure was the largest sector-allocation headwind as the sector rallied sharply on higher oil prices. Consumer Discretionary was also challenging, with Hermès a material detractor as the market remained concerned about the pace of recovery in Chinese luxury demand. Utilities detracted through Grenergy Renovables.

Looking ahead, we expect European equities to remain shaped by the interaction between resilient economic activity and a less benign inflation and interest-rate backdrop. The euro-area economy has so far absorbed the energy shock better than feared, supported by a robust labour market, improving confidence, infrastructure and defence spending and investment linked to artificial intelligence. However, the Middle East conflict, energy prices and fiscal concerns remain important sources of uncertainty, while higher bond yields raise the hurdle rate for long-duration equities.

Within this environment, we continue to find attractive opportunities in high-quality growth companies whose valuations have compressed despite resilient underlying fundamentals. Healthcare remains a particular area of focus. The quarter demonstrated that clinical execution and company-specific catalysts can generate substantial returns even when the broader sector is weak, and we continue to add selectively where we believe the market is underestimating long-term growth. We are also researching additional opportunities in medical devices and life-science tools, where recent deratings have improved prospective returns.

We remain constructive on selected beneficiaries of structural investment in electrification, data centres and AI infrastructure, but will continue to manage position sizes actively where valuations become stretched or share prices become overly dependent on a single market narrative. Equally, the widening debate around AI disruption is creating opportunities in software, information services and financial platforms where we believe fears around disintermediation may be excessive relative to the strength of the underlying franchises.