Carmignac Patrimoine: Letter from the Fund Managers - Q3 2025
Carmignac Patrimoine A EUR Acc delivered a return of +3.72% in the third quarter of 2025, outperforming its reference indicator, which gained +3.02%. Year to date, the Fund has achieved a strong performance of +10.48%, significantly ahead of its indicator, which declined by -0.05%.
Market environment
In the third quarter of 2025, risky assets adopted a glass-half-full perspective, focusing on encouraging signals despite a still-contrasting macroeconomic environment. First, US monetary policy turned more accommodative amid signs of a slight weakening in the labour market. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) delivered its first rate cut of the year in September, while leaving the door open to further adjustments before year-end. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding trade war eased somewhat following the signing of several deals between the United States, Europe, and Japan. Finally, President Donald Trump’s extensive budget package—the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—was passed by Congress. Among other measures, it extended the generous tax cuts introduced during his first term in office.
Markets therefore chose to overlook resilient inflation above central bank targets, widening public deficits, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Against this backdrop, US markets continued to be buoyed by the ongoing enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI). The momentum was sustained by significant investments from hyperscalers, robust corporate earnings, and a surge in deals and partnerships across the infrastructure and cloud computing sectors.
Emerging markets also outperformed, driven by strong performance in Asia. In contrast, European markets underperformed over the period, weighed down by a weaker-than-expected macroeconomic environment, the appreciation of the euro, tariffs, and heightened political uncertainty, notably in France.
On the fixed-income side, US yields declined over the quarter, reflecting the Fed’s aggressive easing cycle. In Europe, the ECB maintained its key rate at 2%, signaling a pause in its rate-cutting trajectory. In France, political instability stemming from disagreements over fiscal trajectory dominated headlines, pushing French sovereign yields higher—a move that reverberated across European bond markets.
Following sharp fluctuations earlier in the year, the euro depreciated slightly against the US dollar (-0.45%4) over the quarter.
How did we fare in this context?
Over the quarter, the Fund took full advantage of its equity and bond performance drivers, while the currency driver penalized performance, due to unfavourable absolute exposure to the yen and a relative overweight to the euro.
Equities: strong support from the technology and gold mining sectors
Performance in equities was driven by stock selection in the technology sector and exposure to gold miners. The Fund benefited from targeted diversification within the technology sector, covering the entire value chain, spread across several geographical zones and capitalisation segments.
Among the main positive contributors was Alphabet, which stood out thanks to its second-quarter 2025 results. Google's parent company was also buoyed by accelerated integration of artificial intelligence across its businesses, sustained growth in its cloud business, and benign outcome of the remedies in an antitrust case. Other US technology companies, such as Nvidia, Arista Networks and Amphenol, were also strong contributors, as was TSMC, the undisputed world leader in semiconductor manufacturing based in Taiwan.
The fund’s positions in Gold miners continued to benefit from the desire of investors and central banks to diversify their holdings away from the dollar in the face of a loss of credibility in US institutions.
However, certain positions weighed on performance, notably MercadoLibre, Novo Nordisk and Centene, which were the main sources of disappointment over the period.
Fixed Income: gains driven by our exposure to inflation and carry strategies
On the fixed income side, our inflation-linked strategies contributed to the fund's performance during the quarter, benefiting from more resilient inflation than expected in the eurozone and a more vigorous recovery in consumer price indices in the United States. In addition, our allocation to carry strategies continued to deliver a sustainable return, with a notable contribution from the corporate debt, subordinated financial debt and emerging debt segments. Finally, our cautious management of the modified duration enabled the fund to cope with divergent trajectories on the interest-rate markets.
Outlook
The current economic environment is characterised by resilient global growth, underpinned by both accommodative monetary policies, notably from the Fed , and expansionary fiscal policies in several major economies (US, Germany, Japan).
In addition, the dynamism of investment in AI is a further driver of economic activity.
However, the main risk in this scenario lies in the resurgence of inflationary pressures, even though the inflation targets set by the central banks have not yet been fully met.
In this environment, our convictions are as follows:
- Equity selection remains the key driver of performance over the short, medium, and long term. Beyond a still-supportive environment for equities — marked by the reacceleration of US growth, ongoing fiscal stimulus, and central bank support — our stock selection favours AI-related companies with attractive valuations, industrial firms positioned on structural themes such as electrification and aeronautics, and financial companies benefiting from resilient fundamentals.
- Considering current valuations and the limited protective role of bonds, we are maintaining exposure to gold mining companies, protection strategies against widening credit spreads, and positions in the yen. We are also implementing optional and directional hedges on equity indices to manage potential downside risks.
- US interest rates are expected to resume their upward trend. The market continues to underestimate inflation pressures — driven by rising wages, higher tariffs, and weak global trade dynamics. This complacency is illustrated by the market expectations of an aggressive Fed easing cycle. In addition, with widening fiscal deficits and a more fragile debt structure, we expect a regime of sustainably higher rates. Accordingly, we maintain a negative modified duration and strong exposure to inflation-linked instruments, particularly in the United States.
- The US dollar is expected to continue weakening as institutional credibility erodes.
1A EUR Share class.
240% MSCI AC World NR index + 40% ICE BofA Global Government index + 20% €STR Capitalized index. Rebalanced quarterly.
3MorningstarTM Category: EUR Moderate Allocation - Global.
4Bloomberg 30/09/2025.
Carmignac Patrimoine
Carmignac Patrimoine A EUR Acc
- Empfohlene Mindestanlagedauer
- 3 Jahre
- Risikoskala*
- 3/7
- SFDR-Klassifizierung**
- Artikel 8
*Die Definition der Risikoskala finden Sie im KID/BIB (Basisinformationsblatt). Das Risiko 1 ist nicht eine risikolose Investition. Dieser Indikator kann sich im Laufe der Zeit verändern. **Die Offenlegungsverordnung (Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation - SFDR) 2019/2088. Die SFDR-Klassifizierung der Fonds kann sich im Laufe der Zeit ändern.
Hauptrisiken des Fonds
Kosten
- Einstiegskosten
- 4.00% des Betrags, den Sie beim Einstieg in diese Anlage zahlen. Dies ist der Höchstbetrag, der Ihnen berechnet wird. Carmignac Gestion erhebt keine Eintrittsgebühr. Die Person, die Ihnen das Produkt verkauft, teilt Ihnen die tatsächliche Gebühr mit.
- Ausstiegskosten
- Wir berechnen keine Ausstiegsgebühr für dieses Produkt.
- Verwaltungsgebühren und sonstige Verwaltungs- oder Betriebskosten
- 1.80% des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung auf der Grundlage der tatsächlichen Kosten des letzten Jahres.
- Erfolgsgebühren
- 20.00% Anteil an der Outperformance, wenn die Wertentwicklung die Wertentwicklung des Referenzindikators seit Jahresbeginn übertrifft und keine Underperformance in der Vergangenheit ausgeglichen werden muss. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie gut sich Ihre Anlage entwickelt. Die vorstehende Schätzung der kumulierten Kosten enthält den Durchschnitt der letzten fünf Jahre bzw. seit der Auflegung des Produkts, wenn diese vor weniger als fünf Jahren erfolgte.
- Transaktionskosten
- 0.32% des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung der Kosten, die anfallen, wenn wir die Basiswerte für das Produkt kaufen oder verkaufen. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie viel wir kaufen und verkaufen.
Performance
| Carmignac Patrimoine | +10.5 | +7.1 | +2.2 | −9.4 | −0.9 | +12.4 | +10.5 | −11.3 | +0.1 | +3.9 |
| Referenzindikator | −0.1 | +11.4 | +7.7 | −10.3 | +13.3 | +5.2 | +18.2 | −0.1 | +1.5 | +8.1 |
| Carmignac Patrimoine | +8.0% | +3.1% | +2.4% |
| Referenzindikator | +5.8% | +4.9% | +5.7% |
Quelle: Carmignac Stand 30. Sep 2025.
Wertentwicklungen der Vergangenheit lassen keine Rückschlüsse auf zukünftige Wertverläufe zu. Wertentwicklung nach Gebühren (keine Berücksichtigung von Ausgabeaufschlägen die durch die Vertriebsstelle erhoben werden können) Der Fonds ist mit einem Kapitalverlustrisiko verbunden.
Bei den nicht währungsgesicherten Anteilen kann die Rendite aufgrund von Währungsschwankungen steigen oder fallen.
Referenzindikator: 40% MSCI AC World NR index + 40% ICE BofA Global Government Index + 20% €STR Capitalized Index. Häufigkeit der Neugewichtung: Quartalsweise