Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond has realised a Q2 performance of -0.65% (A EUR Acc share), and it outperformed its reference indicator1 (JP Morgan Global Government Bond Index (EUR)), which delivered -1.18%.
The bond markets today
In the United States, we are finally witnessing a deceleration in economic growth following three consecutive quarters of better-than-expected results, as well as a gradual normalisation of the labor market. Furthermore, there are indications that inflationary pressures are subsiding, particularly evident in the June data. Due to the recent macroeconomic indicators, there is a growing possibility of an earlier-than-anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Speaking of which, and when examining the movement of US treasuries, we observed an increase in yields from 4.2% as of end of March to 4.7% in mid-April, followed by a downward move to 4.4% by the end of Q2 (still finishing 20 bps above end of March).
In the Eurozone, economic growth continues to be timid, while inflation is experiencing a downward trend; although, it is worth noting that services inflation tends remain sticky. As a result, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, following the example set by the Swiss National Bank and its Swedish counterpart. Furthermore, the outcome of the French elections has introduced a significant amount of volatility and uncertainty regarding the future direction of the Eurozone.
In fact, political risk took center-stage during Q2, especially in the EM world. The latter, lead to increased volatility in emerging markets such as India, Mexico, and South Africa. The elections in these countries led to excessive market reactions, causing significant impacts on local interest rates, currency exchange rates, and external debt spreads, which subsequently spilled over to other emerging market economies.
Local currency EM debt, particularly in Latin America, suffered initially due to the adverse effects of the US rate increase during the first half of the quarter, and later faced challenges due to local events such as the elections in Mexico. However, the high real rates in these countries and the normalization of election-induced volatility are expected to benefit these rates in the long run. The USD remained stable over the period despite.
Fund performance
Carmignac P. Global Bond had a negative absolute performance in Q2 2024, but it outperformed its reference index. Our selection of corporate credit securities, including structured credit investments, significantly contributed to performance. However, the developed market countries duration had a negative impact on the fund's absolute performance.
Additionally, in our emerging market debt strategies, particularly in local currency names such as Brazil, India or South Korea contributed negatively to the fund's performance. The local hard currency emerging debt positions had a neutral contribution. However, our currency strategies had a negative impact on performance this quarter with notably the Japanese Yen having a negative contribution. Nevertheless, our long positioning on the USD was profitable for the fund.
Outlook
While growth has shown resilience so far, it seems unrealistic to expect the US economy to continue growing indefinitely at a pace twice its potential. Therefore, in the current context, with a certain slowdown in the US economy, we are maintaining a relatively high duration of around 4.5. We have also reinforced our view on a steepening of the yield curve, as short-term rates are expected to outperform in a scenario of cyclical inflation. As a result, we have strengthened our buying strategies on the short end of US rates. Additionally, in the framework of the European yield curve, we have implemented steepening strategies, particularly by initiating short positions on French Treasury bonds (OATs).
Regarding emerging market local currency debt, the fund continues to favour countries like Mexico and Brazil, where short-term real rates remain extremely high. We have also taken advantage of the correction in Mexican local rates following the elections and have strengthened our buying position to benefit from their rebound.
In terms of currencies, the fund reinforced long commodity-related positions on the Norwegian krone, Chilean peso, Brazilian real. The fund continues to have a long position on emerging market debt in hard currencies, in the EMEA region and Latin America.
Source: Carmignac, Bloomberg, 30/06/2024. Performance of the A EUR Acc share class ISIN Code A EUR Acc: LU0336083497.
1Reference Indicator: JP Morgan GBI Global (EUR). Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor).
Marketing communication. Please refer to the KID/prospectus of the fund before making any final investment decisions.
Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond
Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond A EUR Acc
- Empfohlene Mindestanlagedauer
- 3 Jahre
- Risikoskala*
- 2/7
- SFDR-Klassifizierung**
- Artikel 8
*Die Definition der Risikoskala finden Sie im KID/BIB (Basisinformationsblatt). Das Risiko 1 ist nicht eine risikolose Investition. Dieser Indikator kann sich im Laufe der Zeit verändern. **Die Offenlegungsverordnung (Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation - SFDR) 2019/2088. Die SFDR-Klassifizierung der Fonds kann sich im Laufe der Zeit ändern.
Hauptrisiken des Fonds
Kosten
- Einstiegskosten
- 2,00 % des Betrags, den Sie beim Einstieg in diese Anlage zahlen. Dies ist der Höchstbetrag, der Ihnen berechnet wird. Carmignac Gestion erhebt keine Eintrittsgebühr. Die Person, die Ihnen das Produkt verkauft, teilt Ihnen die tatsächliche Gebühr mit.
- Ausstiegskosten
- Wir berechnen keine Ausstiegsgebühr für dieses Produkt.
- Verwaltungsgebühren und sonstige Verwaltungs- oder Betriebskosten
- 1,24 % des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung auf der Grundlage der tatsächlichen Kosten des letzten Jahres.
- Erfolgsgebühren
- 20,00 % wenn die Anteilsklasse während des Performancezeitraums den Referenzindikator übertrifft. Sie ist auch dann zahlbar, wenn die Anteilsklasse den Referenzindikator übertroffen, aber eine negative Performance verzeichnet hat. Minderleistung wird für 5 Jahre zurückgefordert. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie gut sich Ihre Investition entwickelt. Die obige aggregierte Kostenschätzung enthält den Durchschnitt der letzten 5 Jahre oder seit der Produkterstellung, wenn es weniger als 5 Jahre sind.
- Transaktionskosten
- 0,14 % des Werts Ihrer Anlage pro Jahr. Hierbei handelt es sich um eine Schätzung der Kosten, die anfallen, wenn wir die Basiswerte für das Produkt kaufen oder verkaufen. Der tatsächliche Betrag hängt davon ab, wie viel wir kaufen und verkaufen.
Performance
| Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond | +5,6 | +0,5 | +1,8 | +3,0 | −5,6 | +0,1 | +4,7 | +8,4 | −3,7 | +0,1 |
| Referenzindikator | +2,6 | −6,0 | +2,8 | +0,5 | −11,8 | +0,6 | +0,6 | +8,0 | +4,3 | −6,2 |
| Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond | +4,6 % | +1,2 % | +1,5 % |
| Referenzindikator | +1,2 % | −2,3 % | −0,7 % |
Quelle: Carmignac Stand 30. Okt 2026.
Die Wertentwicklung der Vergangenheit ist keine Garantie für die zukünftige Wertentwicklung. Sie verstehen sich nach Abzug von Gebühren (außer eventuellen Ausgabeaufschlägen, die von der Vertriebsstelle erhoben werden).
Bei den nicht währungsgesicherten Anteilen kann die Rendite aufgrund von Währungsschwankungen steigen oder fallen (bei Aktien, die nicht gegen das Währungsrisiko abgesichert sind).
Referenzindikator: JPM Global Government Bond index