Over the first quarter of 2025, Carmignac P. Global Bond generated a performance of +0.85% (A EUR Acc), while its reference indicator1 returned -1.36%.
Market Review
Like at the end of 2024, volatility remained a major issue in fixed income markets at the start of the year. However, regional dynamics reversed, with growth outlooks for the euro zone being revised upward, while the US dominance was increasingly questioned. The Trump administration's policies, including the possibility of widespread tariffs and a more isolationist stance, stifled investors' optimism. This shift raised fears of reduced American purchasing power and future inflation, while prompting greater independence among NATO members for defense needs, notably in Germany. The new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, successfully pushed through an unprecedented fiscal stimulus package. Following this announcement, German interest rates spiked, with the 10-year rate jumping by over 40 basis points in 24 hours, marking a significant turning point for German growth, projected to reach 2% by 2027. Meanwhile, US interest rates fell by 36 basis points due to fears over budget cuts and tariff impacts on consumers.
Central banks did not introduce major surprises, with two rate cuts from the European Central Bank and a continued pause in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle. Both institutions revised their inflation outlooks upwards for the end of 2025, to 2.3% for the euro zone and 2.7% for the US.
In this context, credit spreads showed resilience, rising by only 15 basis points in the high-yield segment (iTraxx Xover), despite increased volatility at the end of the quarter. Regarding currencies, the euro appreciated significantly against the dollar and most other currencies, driven by fiscal stimulus measures in Germany and the negative impact of tariffs on US growth, creating a growth differential favoring Europe.
Performance Review
In terms of performance, the quarter can be divided into two parts. A strong performance in the first two months thanks to our focus on US and European yield curve steepening and inflation strategies, short Japanese rates and exposure to certain emerging market curves. Our credit and external debt exposure to certain emerging markets also played an important role. Finally, our long positions in Latin American currencies such as the Brazilian real and Mexican peso, which suffered last year, and the Japanese yen were also beneficial.
March was more challenging, although the fund performed well relatively. Despite short positions in European debt at the time of Germany’s fiscal U-turn announcement, the fund was affected by long positions in the United Kingdom and certain EM exposure. Credit protections only partially mitigated the negative impact from widening credit spreads on corporate debt and hard-currency emerging markets debt. Lastly, the significant appreciation of the euro weighed on our exposure to the US dollar and long positions in the Japanese yen, despite maintaining cautious exposure throughout the period.
Outlook
In an environment characterised by uncertainty over tariffs, European defence budgets and geopolitical issues, as well as increasingly stretched valuations in certain markets, we expect the major developed and emerging market central banks to gradually continue their monetary easing policies. As a result, we are keeping modified duration at a relatively high level at around 6.
In terms of rate strategies, we favour real rates in the United States as economic data point to a slowdown in the face of tariffs. Similarly, we are focusing on central banks that are behind the cycle, such as the United Kingdom, and certain emerging markets, such as Brazil, which is benefiting from high real rates, while we are short Japanese rates, where inflation is firming, and in non-core European countries, given the high level of defence spending and tight valuations.
With regard to credit, although this asset class offers an attractive carry opportunity, we remain cautious due to high valuations and maintain a significant hedge on the iTraxx Xover to protect the portfolio from the risk of spread widening.
On the currency side, we maintain a relatively low exposure to the US dollar and limited exposure to emerging market currencies. Our currency selection includes Latin American currencies (BRL, CLP) and we are long the Japanese yen, as we expect it to be the only central bank to hike interest rates this year.
Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond
Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond A EUR Acc
- Duración mínima recomendada de la inversión
- 3 años
- Escala de riesgo*
- 2/7
- Clasificación SFDR**
- Artículo 8
*Escala de riesgo del KID (Documento de datos fundamentales). El riesgo 1 no implica una inversión sin riesgo. Este indicador podría evolucionar con el tiempo. **Reglamento SFDR (Reglamento sobre la divulgación de información relativa a la sostenibilidad en el sector de los servicios financieros, por sus siglas en inglés) 2019/2088. La clasificación SFDR de los Fondos puede evolucionar con el tiempo.
Principales riesgos del Fondo
Gastos
- Costes de entrada
- 2,00 % del importe que pagará usted al realizar esta inversión. Se trata de la cantidad máxima que se le cobrará. Carmignac Gestion no cobra costes de entrada. La persona que le venda el producto le comunicará cuánto se le cobrará realmente.
- Costes de salida
- No cobramos una comisión de salida por este producto.
- Comisiones de gestión y otros costes administrativos o de funcionamiento
- 1,24 % del valor de su inversión al año. Se trata de una estimación basada en los costes reales del último año.
- Comisiones de rendimiento
- 20,00 % cuando la clase de acciones supera el indicador de referencia durante el período de rendimiento. También se pagará en caso de que la clase de acciones haya superado el indicador de referencia pero haya tenido un rendimiento negativo. El bajo rendimiento se recupera durante 5 años. La cantidad real variará según el rendimiento de su inversión. La estimación de costos agregados anterior incluye el promedio de los últimos 5 años, o desde la creación del producto si es menos de 5 años.
- Costes de operación
- 0,14 % del valor de su inversión al año. Se trata de una estimación de los costes en que incurrimos al comprar y vender las inversiones subyacentes del producto. El importe real variará en función de la cantidad que compremos y vendamos.
Rentabilidades
| Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond | +0,9 | +1,8 | +3,0 | −5,6 | +0,1 | +4,7 | +8,4 | −3,7 | +0,1 | +9,5 |
| Indicador de referencia | −1,4 | +2,8 | +0,5 | −11,8 | +0,6 | +0,6 | +8,0 | +4,3 | −6,2 | +4,6 |
| Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond | +0,3 % | +1,8 % | +1,0 % |
| Indicador de referencia | −2,1 % | −2,9 % | −0,1 % |
Fuente: Carmignac a 31 de mar. de 2025.
Las rentabilidades históricas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras. La rentabilidad es neta de comisiones (excluyendo las eventuales comisiones de entrada aplicadas por el distribuidor) El fondo no garantiza la preservación del capital.
La rentabilidad puede aumentar o disminuir como consecuencia de las fluctuaciones de las divisas, en el caso de las acciones que no estén cubiertas por divisas.
Indicador de referencia: JPM Global Government Bond index