Carmignac Investissement: Letter from the Fund Manager - Q2 2025

During the second quarter of 2025, Carmignac Investissement delivered a robust return of +11.68%, significantly outperforming its reference indicator, which posted a gain of just +2.63%. Year-to-date, the Fund has achieved a positive performance of +3.10%, in contrast to a -2.92% decline recorded by its reference indicator.

The second quarter was characterized by heightened volatility, with a sharp drawdown, a swift rebound, and record-setting highs.

Markets opened the quarter under pressure after the announcement on April 2 by President Trump regarding broad tariffs. The move triggered a sharp selloff, pushing U.S. equities into bear market territory, with declines exceeding 19% from February peaks. However, sentiment quickly reversed when the administration paused the tariffs for 90 days on April 9, sparking a dramatic V-shaped recovery.

By the end of June, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 had not only recouped losses but reached new all-time highs. The rally was driven primarily by large-cap technology and AI-related stocks, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Broadcom emerging as key performance leaders.

Outside the U.S., European and Emerging Markets delivered returns broadly in line with U.S. equities (in euro terms). In Europe, declining inflation, improving macroeconomic conditions and the announcement of a German fiscal stimulus package supported equity performance. Emerging Markets benefited from a weakening dollar and renewed investor interest. Notably, Taiwan and South Korea posted strong gains, buoyed by their semiconductor sector exposure and, in Korea's case, post-election optimism.

During the quarter, the Fund outperformed its reference indicator, driven primarily by strong stock selection, especially in the Technology sector, and to a lesser extent in Industrials. During the sharp market downturn in April, the Fund benefited significantly from put options on indices and individual stocks. These hedging instruments are implemented at low cost as a strategic safeguard against extreme market events, like those witnessed in April.

In the Technology sector, reinforcing certain high-conviction positions in April further boosted the Fund’s rebound. Notable contributors included Nvidia, Celestica, and ServiceNow. Additionally, our diversified exposure across the Asian technology value chain (TSMC, Elite Material, SK Hynix) provided further support to performance during the recovery phase.

Within Industrials, performance was bolstered by our recently initiated positions in companies involved in data center electrification and cooling systems—added during market weakness following DeepSeek’s developments in January. This segment, which represents over 50% of a data center’s capital expenditures (excluding IT equipment), presents a compelling long-term opportunity and has already contributed positively.

Conversely, the Healthcare sector was the main area of disappointment. Beyond the sector’s overall underperformance, our stock selection weighted on the performance, with names such as Centene and Thermo Fisher lagging significantly. However, some key convictions outperformed like McKesson and Cencora.

Trump’s mandate introduced uncertainty and volatility while fiscal discipline under a Republican leadership looks unlikely. In this environment, we favor equities with strong pricing power and robust balance sheets—companies that can absorb inflationary pressures and perform even if interest rates stay elevated. Meanwhile, technological innovation continues to advance, largely independent of political shifts.

In Europe, a growing awareness of strategic vulnerabilities is driving the first steps toward greater autonomy and resilience. Our European exposure is focused on industrial companies benefiting from three long-term trends: electrification trend (Prysmian, Schneider Electric); aerospace (Safran, Airbus, BAE Systems); reindustrialization in Europe (Siemens). We remain highly selective, targeting only high-quality businesses trading at attractive valuations.

The sharp market drawdown allowed us to increase our small and mid-cap (SMID) exposure to 8.3% of the fund. This includes niche players in structurally growing value chains (e.g., Lotes, a Taiwanese semiconductor supplier), companies with low, stable growth and low valuations (e.g., Molson Coors, a beverage company), and those at a growth inflection point with still-attractive valuations (e.g., Innodisk).

We have taken profits on both tech and non-tech names that delivered strong performance over the quarter. At the same time, we are initiating positions in laggards where fundamentals are improving but not yet priced in by the market. AirBnB is one such example: we expect a return to double-digit growth, which is not reflected in consensus forecasts. The company’s structural advantages over OTAs—especially its defensible two-sided network—remain intact, even in the face of AI disruption or search-based competition, while regulatory headwinds appear to have eased.

In a market environment influenced by political rhetoric, our strategy focuses on recognizing the long-term potential of equities. This involves identifying growth companies that are less dependent on the economic cycle across the US, Europe, and EM; and stocks already reflecting a high level of uncertainty in their valuations compared to the robustness of the fundamentals.