Carmignac Patrimoine: Letter from the Fund Managers - Q1 2026

Carmignac Patrimoine (A EUR Acc) returned -0.25% in the first quarter of 2026, broadly in line with its reference indicator, which was down -0.22%.

The year opened on the same strong footing that closed 2025, supported by optimism around rate cuts and continued momentum in the AI-driven investment cycle. Equity markets remained close to their highs, despite already stretched valuations.

However, beneath the surface, market dynamics had begun to shift as early as February. While headline indices held up, a significant rotation unfolded. The software sector was hit particularly hard, as investors reassessed the disinflationary impact of AI and the growing risk of disruption across a range of business models, from financial services to consulting. Flows rotated into more cyclical areas such as energy and industrials, while emerging markets and, to a lesser extent, Europe also benefited. At the same time, concerns started to emerge around private credit, notably due to its exposure to technology and, in some cases, opaque financing structures. That said, public credit markets remained broadly resilient, with only limited spread widening despite rising risk aversion.

This more fragile equilibrium was disrupted in late February by escalating geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel and Iran. The resulting oil shock drove inflation expectations and the US dollar higher, triggered a sharp correction in gold, and pushed sovereign yields upwards. Global equities sold off meaningfully, marking a rapid transition from a “Goldilocks” environment to a much more uncertain regime, increasingly shaped by stagflation risks and geopolitical developments.

The fund ended the quarter slightly down, primarily reflecting the drag from equities. The portfolio was impacted both by the February rotation, driven by the reassessment of AI-related risks, and by the broader risk-off move in March. In contrast, the rest of the portfolio proved resilient, once again highlighting the strength of our diversified approach.

Our negative duration positioning since the start of the year was a key contributor to performance. The repricing of inflation expectations and the rise in yields in March brought back echoes of the 2022 environment, supporting our stance. In addition, our hedging strategies across both credit and equities delivered positive contributions. Diversification also played its role. On the equity side, energy names such as Schlumberger, along with more defensive segments like consumer staples, provided support. In currencies, active management of our US dollar exposure, combined with positions in commodity-linked currencies, notably the Brazilian real, added value. Finally, our active management of gold exposure, including a significant reduction between January and March, proved timely and contributed positively to performance.

Overall, the quarter underscores the robustness of our portfolio construction. In a market environment that was relatively unfavourable to our long-term equity convictions, which remain the main risk factor in the portfolio and were notably impacted by AI-related disruption concerns (particularly in software, certain mega-cap technology names, and financial services) other asset classes effectively stepped in to offset shocks.

Our current positioning reflects a high degree of uncertainty. While markets appear to have largely priced in the inflation shock, we believe they continue to underestimate the risk of a growth slowdown. Against this backdrop, we have reduced our exposure to risky assets and adjusted our positioning along the yield curve.

In equities, we have tactically lowered net exposure using futures, while maintaining downside protection through put options established ahead of the geopolitical escalation. At the same time, we have increased portfolio convexity through selectively adding call option strategies, taking advantage of attractive pricing in a market heavily skewed towards protection. Within stock selection, we retain a meaningful allocation to technology, where valuations have already adjusted significantly. However, we have refocused on companies with strong competitive moats, which we believe are better positioned to withstand AI-driven disruption. In credit, we continue to run a high level of protection on high yield, as current spread levels still appear somewhat complacent given the potential implications of higher commodity prices.

On rates, we have actively managed our positioning, taking profits on short duration strategies following the March sell-off. More recently, we have initiated long positions on German short-term rates, as market expectations for ECB tightening appear overly optimistic considering the growing downside risks to European growth, particularly if geopolitical tensions persist. We also maintain exposure to inflation through long-dated inflation-linked bonds.

Elsewhere, we have reintroduced a tactical allocation to gold, albeit at significantly lower levels than in the past. In currencies, we continue to favour carry strategies, particularly in commodity-linked currencies such as the Brazilian real and the Australian dollar. We also maintain a preference for the euro over the US dollar, as we see the ongoing Middle East tensions, arguably the first indirect confrontation between the US and China, as a medium-term headwind for the dollar.