Over the first quarter of 2025, Carmignac P. Global Bond generated a performance of +0.85% (A EUR Acc), while its reference indicator1 returned -1.36%.
Market Review
Like at the end of 2024, volatility remained a major issue in fixed income markets at the start of the year. However, regional dynamics reversed, with growth outlooks for the euro zone being revised upward, while the US dominance was increasingly questioned. The Trump administration's policies, including the possibility of widespread tariffs and a more isolationist stance, stifled investors' optimism. This shift raised fears of reduced American purchasing power and future inflation, while prompting greater independence among NATO members for defense needs, notably in Germany. The new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, successfully pushed through an unprecedented fiscal stimulus package. Following this announcement, German interest rates spiked, with the 10-year rate jumping by over 40 basis points in 24 hours, marking a significant turning point for German growth, projected to reach 2% by 2027. Meanwhile, US interest rates fell by 36 basis points due to fears over budget cuts and tariff impacts on consumers.
Central banks did not introduce major surprises, with two rate cuts from the European Central Bank and a continued pause in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle. Both institutions revised their inflation outlooks upwards for the end of 2025, to 2.3% for the euro zone and 2.7% for the US.
In this context, credit spreads showed resilience, rising by only 15 basis points in the high-yield segment (iTraxx Xover), despite increased volatility at the end of the quarter. Regarding currencies, the euro appreciated significantly against the dollar and most other currencies, driven by fiscal stimulus measures in Germany and the negative impact of tariffs on US growth, creating a growth differential favoring Europe.
Performance Review
In terms of performance, the quarter can be divided into two parts. A strong performance in the first two months thanks to our focus on US and European yield curve steepening and inflation strategies, short Japanese rates and exposure to certain emerging market curves. Our credit and external debt exposure to certain emerging markets also played an important role. Finally, our long positions in Latin American currencies such as the Brazilian real and Mexican peso, which suffered last year, and the Japanese yen were also beneficial.
March was more challenging, although the fund performed well relatively. Despite short positions in European debt at the time of Germany’s fiscal U-turn announcement, the fund was affected by long positions in the United Kingdom and certain EM exposure. Credit protections only partially mitigated the negative impact from widening credit spreads on corporate debt and hard-currency emerging markets debt. Lastly, the significant appreciation of the euro weighed on our exposure to the US dollar and long positions in the Japanese yen, despite maintaining cautious exposure throughout the period.
Outlook
In an environment characterised by uncertainty over tariffs, European defence budgets and geopolitical issues, as well as increasingly stretched valuations in certain markets, we expect the major developed and emerging market central banks to gradually continue their monetary easing policies. As a result, we are keeping modified duration at a relatively high level at around 6.
In terms of rate strategies, we favour real rates in the United States as economic data point to a slowdown in the face of tariffs. Similarly, we are focusing on central banks that are behind the cycle, such as the United Kingdom, and certain emerging markets, such as Brazil, which is benefiting from high real rates, while we are short Japanese rates, where inflation is firming, and in non-core European countries, given the high level of defence spending and tight valuations.
With regard to credit, although this asset class offers an attractive carry opportunity, we remain cautious due to high valuations and maintain a significant hedge on the iTraxx Xover to protect the portfolio from the risk of spread widening.
On the currency side, we maintain a relatively low exposure to the US dollar and limited exposure to emerging market currencies. Our currency selection includes Latin American currencies (BRL, CLP) and we are long the Japanese yen, as we expect it to be the only central bank to hike interest rates this year.
Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond
Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond A EUR Acc
- Horizonte de investimento mínimo recomendado
- 3 anos
- Escala de Risco*
- 2/7
- Classificação SFDR**
- Artigo 8
*Escala de Risco do KID (documentos de informação fundamental). O risco 1 não significa um investimento isento de risco. Este indicador pode variar ao longo do tempo. **Regulamento SFDR (Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation) 2019/2088. A classificação SFDR dos Fundos pode evoluir ao longo do tempo.
Principais riscos do fundo
Comissões
- Custos de entrada
- 2,00% do montante que paga ao entrar neste investimento. Este é o valor máximo que lhe será cobrado. Carmignac Gestion não cobra custos de entrada. A pessoa que lhe vender o produto irá informá-lo do custo efetivo.
- Custos de saída
- Não cobramos uma comissão de saída para este produto.
- Comissões de gestão e outros custos administrativos ou operacionais
- 1,24% O impacto dos custos que suportamos anualmente pela gestão dos seus investimentos e outras comissões administrativas. Esta é uma estimativa baseada nos custos efetivos ao longo do último ano.
- Comissões de rendimento
- 20,00% quando a classe de ações supera o indicador de referência durante o período de desempenho. Será pago também no caso de a classe de ações ter superado o indicador de referência, mas teve um desempenho negativo. O baixo desempenho é recuperado por 5 anos. O valor real varia dependendo do desempenho do seu investimento. A estimativa de custo agregado acima inclui a média dos últimos 5 anos, ou desde a criação do produto se for inferior a 5 anos.
- Custos de transação
- 0,14% O impacto dos custos inerentes às nossas operações de compra e de venda de investimentos subjacentes ao produto.
Desempenho
| Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond | +0,9 | +1,8 | +3,0 | −5,6 | +0,1 | +4,7 | +8,4 | −3,7 | +0,1 | +9,5 |
| Indicador de Referência | −1,4 | +2,8 | +0,5 | −11,8 | +0,6 | +0,6 | +8,0 | +4,3 | −6,2 | +4,6 |
| Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond | +0,3% | +1,8% | +1,0% |
| Indicador de Referência | −2,1% | −2,9% | −0,1% |
Fonte: Carmignac em 31 de mar de 2025.
O desempenho passado não é necessariamente um indicador do desempenho futuro. Os desempenhos são líquidos de comissões (excluindo eventuais comissões de subscrição cobradas pelo distribuidor). O Fundo apresenta um risco de perda do capital.
O retorno pode aumentar ou diminuir em resultado de flutuações cambiais, para as acções que não estão cobertas por divisas.
Indicador de Referência: JPM Global Government Bond index